Dated, falsifiable predictions — ours and the panel's — with their windows and status, and the calendar of the releases and events they resolve on.
| DUE SOON | June shelter +0.1% MoM is the first sub-0.2% print since Jan-2021 — tracking a trend-break vs a one-month blip. NO directional bet. NEUTRAL watch-item, scored on the next two prints. A directional 'blip' call was declined as framework-bias risk (the debasement lens wants shelter sticky) — logged neutral to keep the scorecard honest (Ruling 5, SETTLED). | Owner, seed | 2026-09-11 · 4d |
| DUE SOON | The 2026 rise in the 10y is supply/policy-priced REAL rate, not growth or inflation repricing: through the Sept FOMC (2026-09-16) the 20-session decomposition stays real-led or mixed with breakevens contributing under a third of the nominal move, while the inflation-fundamentals impulse never turns accelerating. id: read_20260818_real_led_supply. SEEDED AT (served, build 8a9dcd25d166): 10y 4.68 / real 2.41 / BE 2.27; YTD +49bp nominal = +47 real +2 BE; since the 252s trough (2025-10-22) +71 = +73 real -2 BE; ACM TP 0.83 (54.2nd pct of 36.6y, rising-not-high) carrying ~half the 20s move (tp_share 0.52, real_driver mixed); inflation_fundamentals mixed/decelerating with ALL FIVE components decelerating (impulse norm -1.0); growth_fundamentals expansion/ decelerating (impulse -0.444, 6 of 9 slowing). The read: with inflation compensation flat and growth momentum cooling, the residual drivers of +73bp real are SUPPLY (fiscal engine: interest/receipts 25.55% at the 100th pct of 10.8y; marginal coupon 4.39 vs avg 3.44) and POLICY-PATH repricing (front-end spread +52bp; Howell hike call) - not growth optimism. FALSIFIED IF: decomposition.windows.20s serves tag inflation-led with |d_breakeven_bp| > |d_real_bp| on any vintage inside the window, OR inflation_fundamentals.impulse.direction serves 'accelerating' on any vintage inside the window. Either outcome means the disinflation/real-led frame mis-read the move - which is the debasement-guardrail failure mode, logged here precisely so it can score against me. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-1. A dovish Jackson Hole + clean auction week can fade the term premium and leave this read moot-but-unfalsified; an unfalsified outcome is NOT a win and scores qualitatively against the decomposition path, never as a binary pass. DISCRIMINATORS THIS WEEK: 20Y auction 2026-08-19 + 30Y TIPS reopen 2026-08-20 (a TIPS reopening, NOT a nominal 30Y - corrected 2026-08-21; absorption z's, tail_manual_pending - owner paste supersedes proxy tails); Jackson Hole late Aug (Howell's stated tell). Cross-references: howell_2026_next_move_hike, dale_1998_correction (both checkpoint FOMC 2026-09-15/16) - do not double-count. | read 2026-08-18 | 2026-09-16 · 9d |
| DUE SOON | Warsh hikes at the 2026-09-16 FOMC, absent a very weak payroll print (his stated bar: roughly +0.2 on U3 and 0.1 on core). id: rosenberg_sep_hike. LEAN: caution / policy-tightening — same side as howell_2026_next_move_hike, arrived at from the opposite seat. Rosenberg's own framework says the Fed SHOULD NOT hike (rosenberg_2027_disinflation); this entry is his PREDICTION that it WILL. Normative and predictive are not a contradiction and must never be scored as one. MECHANISM: a new chair establishing an anti-inflation reputation acts on the tariff-driven goods impulse rather than the decelerating services side. OBSERVABLE: the FOMC decision, with DFF daily_close as its served footprint (effective fed funds steps to the new target range within days); UNRATE and CPILFESL for the escape hatch. RESOLUTION RULE — written 2026-09-02, BEFORE the event, at the owner's instruction, because this is precisely the argument that is unwinnable afterwards. CONFIRMS: the 2026-09-16 FOMC raises the target range. Nothing else confirms. FALSIFIED IF: the meeting holds or cuts and the escape hatch below did not trigger. A HAWKISH HOLD IS FALSIFIED, NOT PARTIAL — this is the case the rule exists to settle. A hold with hard guidance, a hawkish dot plot, or a dissent-for-hike scores the claim WRONG. The claim is about an ACTION at a DATED meeting, not about a stance. Scoring a signal-hard hold as a win would make the entry unfalsifiable, and a non-firing mechanism must never count as confirmation. Record the hawkishness as context; award it no credit. VOID — not activated, never scored as wrong: the last Employment Situation report published before the 2026-09-16 decision prints U3 at least 0.2pp above its prior vintage, or the corresponding core print comes in 0.1pp soft against consensus. That is HIS OWN stated escape and it routes to not-activated. AMBIGUITY, DECLARED: the surviving source says only "0.1 core" and does not name the measure. Where the escape hatch is the DECIDING factor and the reading is genuinely ambiguous, this entry resolves VOID rather than being scored on our reading of his words — same discipline as the declines above. The escape hatch can only VOID; it can never convert a miss into a win. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 — the escape hatch is generous and will let a genuine miss resolve VOID. Deliberate: he stated the condition himself, and a falsifier that ignores a caller's own stated escape is not scoring him, it is scoring a strawman. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 78f16b8c334e, 2026-09-02T21:04Z): DFF 3.63 (2026-08-31, 52.3rd pct of 40.1y); DGS2 4.34, DGS10 4.75, 2s10s +41bp; T10YIE 2.35 (2026-09-01). CROSS-REFERENCES: howell_2026_next_move_hike (same direction, WIDER window to 2026-12-31 and unconditional on the meeting — a Sept hold falsifies this entry and merely advances that one's clock); dale_1998_correction (conditional, checkpoints the same meeting); rosenberg_2027_disinflation (the same analyst's normative opposite). DO NOT DOUBLE-COUNT — one meeting, four exposures, scored independently, per the FOMC-September pair note above.
| Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) — David Lin session, 2026-09-01 (owner-supplied draft, processed 2026-09-02; checks in data/panel/checks/2026-09-02-rosenberg-lin-session.md) | 2026-09-16 · 9d |
| open | Treasury's stated TGA rebuild to ~$950bn at end-September and a projected ~$1.05tn (±$50bn) peak in late October drains bank reserves roughly commensurately, because the RRP buffer that absorbed the 2023 rebuild is gone. Expect measurable reserve drawdown, widening SOFR−IORB, and materially higher SRF usage through October. MECHANISM: in the 2023 rebuild, MMFs rotated out of RRP into bills and reserves were largely insulated. That channel is exhausted — RRP is $2.251bn (2026-08-04), ~0.09% of its 2023 peak — so bill issuance to rebuild the TGA is funded out of reserves. Implied magnitude ~$140bn from the served 2026-08-04 level to the stated late-October peak. SERVED BASELINE (verified §0.1a, run 2026-08-05T00:30Z): TGA 910.8bn (94.3rd pct), reserves 2984.6bn (77.2nd), net_liquidity 5824.8bn (79.5th), all as_of 2026-07-29; RRP 2.251bn; SOFR−IORB 0.0bp (SOFR 3.65 / IORB 3.65, aligned 2026-08-03); SRF 0.001bn with 9 of the last 20 sessions nonzero. CONFIRMS: TGA rises toward 1.0-1.05tn through October WHILE reserves fall roughly commensurately, SOFR−IORB widens above 0, and SRF usage rises MATERIALLY above its current $1mn/9-of-20-sessions baseline. Note the SRF condition is deliberately NOT 'rises off zero' — it is already off zero, so a binary would score itself true on arrival. FALSIFIES: TGA builds toward target while reserves hold flat or rise and SOFR−IORB stays pinned. Something would then be absorbing the drain this read does not account for (RRP rebuilding, Fed balance-sheet action, foreign/official flows) — the 'no buffer left' mechanism is wrong and gets rebuilt, not defended. ALSO FALSIFIED IF: Treasury abandons the target. The 950bn/1.05tn figures are STATED INTENTIONS, not commitments; a revision at the 2026-11-04 QRA voids the setup rather than proving anything either way. CONTAMINATION RISK — read this as a liquidity FACT with a policy-agnostic cause. The TGA path is driven by seasonal tax and outflow mechanics, not by a liquidity intention. Do NOT read the drain as a policy signal. ANALYTICAL NOTE: it cuts against a 'conditions are being managed to look pleasing into the midterms' reading — Treasury is publicly planning to withdraw ~$140bn of liquidity into November, the opposite of what a pure suppression thesis predicts. Whether that is deliberate, indifferent or mechanical is NOT something the data can answer. FIRST MEANINGFUL READ: weekly H.4.1 prints through September. Observable: WTREGEN, WRESBAL, RRPONTSYD (confirm it stays ~0; a rebound restores the buffer), RPONTSYD, SOFR/IORB via derived.sofr_iorb, derived.net_liquidity. All already collected — no new build required. | read 2026-08-05 (QRA_BASELINE.md, Treasury sb0590) | 2026-11-04 |
| open | Treasury will act to arrest disorderly long-end repricing and will escalate the tool as the strain level rises: the 2026-08-19 doubling of the 10-20y/20-30y buyback cap is the second point in a reaction function (after the 2023 bill-shift), and further strain produces further response. id: read_20260820_long_end_repression. Owner-framework relevant. This entry is the OBSERVABLE that separates the two readings of 2026-08-19 — dossier §1d.1 / MacroVoices desk ('duration management, not YCC') vs Dale, El-Erian ('already YCC' / 'broader deployment of YCC'). CONFIRMS, ascending: (1) realised sizes at/near the $4bn cap in the 10-20 and 20-30 buckets from the first enlarged op 2026-09-10 (then 09-24, 10-01, 10-08, 10-15, 10-27, 11-04 — tentative schedule 2026-08-05); (2) a further cap raise or off-schedule op before 11-04; (3) program extended or enlarged at the 11-04 QRA; (4) SLR exemption for Treasuries (the named escalation). FALSIFIED IF: DGS30 clears above 5.50% on a sustained basis (>= 5 sessions) with no new support op, no cap raise and no issuance-mix response. ALSO FALSIFIED IF the program lapses at 11-04 while the long end is still under strain (expiry into a calm market proves nothing). NOT falsifiers: gold, equities or the 30Y falling. SECONDARY TEST (does it hold): DGS30 back above 5.30% within four weeks of 09-09 with ops running at the new cap => intervention cosmetic, claim weakens. CONTAMINATION: the 08-19 20Y and 08-20 30Y auctions are VOID as organic-demand reads (the announcement landed ~4h before the 20Y). SEEDED AT (served, build 8b79e3cf21ca): DGS30 5.19 (08-19) off 5.31 close 08-17 / 5.34 intraday; 20Y auction 08-19 dealer_pct_z +0.55, bucket capacity_exhausted; ACM TP 0.84 (54.8th pct of 36.6y). ERROR ACCEPTED: type-1 — a cap-sized op into a calm market will look like confirmation without strain; score realised size AGAINST strain, never alone. Observable: DGS30, auction_internals, calendar buyback ops. Realised op sizes ARE COLLECTED from 2026-08-21 (collect/sources/treasury_buybacks.py, FiscalData; BUYBACK_LS_10Y20Y_* / BUYBACK_LS_20Y30Y_*: OFFERED_BN, ACCEPTED_BN, CAP_BN, FILL_PCT). CALIBRATION 2026-08-21 from the history: long-end ops filled AT CAP in 23 of 25 since 2025-11 with offers 4-18x the cap, so confirm (1) 'realised at the $4bn cap' is the DEFAULT outcome, not a signal - downgraded to a precondition. The informative reads are OFFERED_BN (trend DOWN: ~36bn/op in Mar-Apr 2026 -> ~20bn in Jul-Aug) and FILL_PCT < 100 (Treasury rejecting on price, as on 2026-03-19 at 10% and 2025-11-20 at 40%). Put-like signature = 100% fill with RISING offered volume after 09-10; price-discipline signature = fill below cap. BESSENT 2026-08-20 (CNBC via Reuters): 'it could be more than the $4 billion per issue' and 'part of it is signaling' — escalation narrated one day after the announcement, before any enlarged op; counts as CONFIRMS-(2) talk, not action, until a cap raise or off-schedule op is published. Cross-references: read_20260818_real_led_supply, dale_1998_correction, howell_2026_next_move_hike — do not double-count. | read 2026-08-20 (QRA_BASELINE.md §2b; Treasury sb0607 primary) | 2026-11-04 |
| open | CPI upward jumps in spring and October 2026 Spring leg: May CPI 4.2% headline is consistent — score after full-year path. | Bianco, Dec-2025 | 2026-11-30 |
| open | The late-July 2026 tradeable low in equities does not prove durable over a 3-4 month horizon (stated 2026-07-31 with SPX at 7,489.72). id: dale_20260731_tradeable_low. RATIONALE FOR SEEDING (rule 3): this is Dale's cleanest UNCONDITIONAL dated call and it resolves on a series already collected, which the existing dale_1998_correction entry does not - that one is CONDITIONAL on the Sept/Oct FOMC flipping the policy cycle. Seeded so a skate-through on the conditional cannot be read as a win on the unconditional, and so the panel has at least one Dale line that cannot resolve into 'the branch never activated'. CONFIRMS: SP500 trades below 7,489.72 at any point through 2026-11-30. FALSIFIES: SP500 holds above 7,489.72 for the whole window. Context at seed (served, build 8b79e3cf21ca): SP500 7,641.16 (2026-08-20, 99.5th pct of 10.1y), peak 7,798.99 on 08-13, so the call is currently +2.0% against him; MARGIN_DEBT 1,417,225 (2026-07) after a +99.7% three-year run and a first -5.6% m/m decline off the June peak; positioning.leverage 94.6th pct 'crowded'; cot_crowding ES crowded long. His stated mechanism is the R-star/capital-competition channel (Framework 9), not a growth scare - score the price, not the mechanism. Cross-references: dale_1998_correction (same analyst, different structure - DO NOT DOUBLE-COUNT), howell_2026_next_move_hike, read_20260818_real_led_supply. | Dale (42 Macro) - Yahoo Finance Opening Bid roundtable, 2026-07-31 (primary, captions) | 2026-11-30 |
| open | The 2026-11-04 refunding announcement, not the buyback programme, is the lever that brings the 10y down (the November-2023 analogue). id: rosenberg_nov_refunding. LEAN: plumbing — the supply-composition school rather than the Fed-path school. MECHANISM: as in Nov-2023, a refunding that shifts issuance toward bills or holds coupon sizes below expectation relieves duration supply and the long end rallies on the announcement itself. OBSERVABLE: issuance_vs_guidance and AUCT_*_OFFER_BN (both built 2026-09-02, so this scores MECHANICALLY the day it lands); DGS10 daily_close. CONFIRMS: DGS10 falls at least 25bp from its 2026-11-03 close within 30 calendar days AND the refunding is the identifiable lever — issuance_vs_guidance registers a departure, or coupon OFFER sizes come in below the same cycle position one quarter back. FALSIFIED IF: DGS10 is unchanged-to-higher 30 days after 11-04 (a fall of 10bp or less counts as unchanged). ALSO FALSIFIED IF the 10y does fall 25bp while the refunding held sizes flat and the move traces to the buyback programme or the Fed path — that outcome refutes his MECHANISM, which is the whole content of the claim, and it must not be allowed to score as a win on direction alone. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-1 — a 25bp rally on a macro shock inside the window will look like confirmation. The issuance leg is what guards against it; score both or score neither. SIZE THE GUIDANCE QUESTION ON OFFER, NEVER ON SIZE: AUCT_*_SIZE_BN stores totalAccepted = offeringAmount + somaAccepted, and the SOMA add-on ran 10.62bn of a 52.62bn 10Y total on 2026-08-12. Use AUCT_*_OFFER_BN and compare the SAME CYCLE POSITION one quarter back — a reopening is smaller than its own new issue by design. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 78f16b8c334e): DGS10 4.75 (2026-08-31, 58.9th pct of 40.1y); all seven tenors read as_guided at the 2026-09-02 build. CROSS-REFERENCES: read_20260820_long_end_repression (resolves at the same 2026-11-04 event, OPPOSITE lever — it scores Treasury's SUPPORT escalation, this one scores the ISSUANCE decision; a single 11-04 action can confirm one and not the other). DO NOT DOUBLE-COUNT.
| Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) — David Lin session, 2026-09-01 (owner-supplied draft, processed 2026-09-02) | 2026-12-04 |
| open | Forward guidance producing a durably negative real floor funds rate | Dale, Jan-2026 deck | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Q4-2026 food/fertilizer shock | Johnson, May-2026 | 2026-12-31 |
| open | SPR flow reversal ~Aug-2026 puts a floor under crude into Q4 | Owner, seed | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Core PCE (PCEPILFE) prints <= 2.5% YoY for two consecutive months in 2026 Falsifies the sticky-core leg. Observable: PCEPILFE YoY (calendar-indexed, F-01). | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | 10y (DGS10) stays < 5.0% through 2026 Falsifies acute fiscal-dominance timing. Observable: DGS10 (scoreable now). REWRITTEN 2026-07-15 (review I-8): the original bundled '...with no 10y/30y auction tails in the extreme band', whose observable (auction internals) is NOT built — a falsifier pointing at a nonexistent observable looks honest while it isn't. The auction-tail rider is split out below as UNSCOREABLE until the TreasuryDirect collector lands, so it stops counting as a live falsifier. | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | No 10y/30y auction tails in the extreme band through 2026 REINSTATED live 2026-07-15 (v2.2 §3.3, T2): auction_internals is now built and served — per-tenor tail = high yield minus the same-day CMT close. Scored against this CMT-close PROXY tail until the owner pastes real when-issued tails via data/manual/overrides.yaml#auction_tail_manual (which supersedes and relabels it per auction). Deterministic + free from TreasuryDirect; the spec's 'tails are qualitative' call is disputed (review I-8) — for a fiscal-dominance framework these ARE the direct observable of the mechanism. | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Broad dollar (DTWEXBGS) holds its 2025-26 range through 2026 — no reserve-currency debasement break The dollar-bull call, previously untracked. Observable: DTWEXBGS range vs 2025-26. | Johnson counter / dollar-bull | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Real GDP positive every quarter of 2026 WITHOUT a Fed balance-sheet re-expansion > 5% SAAR Falsifies 'the regime REQUIRES a liquidity-driven melt-up'. Observable: GDP + policy_flow SAAR. | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Productivity (OPHNFB) YoY stays > 1.5%, keeping unit labor costs contained The soft-landing MECHANISM made falsifiable. Observable: OPHNFB (wired via the benign co-anchor). | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Gold/oil ratio mean-reverts below 45 and holds a quarter Falsifies a STRUCTURAL debasement bid. Observable: gold_oil ratio + band. | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Bank credit (TOTBKCR) YoY positive with SLOOS standards easing and no credit event, through 2026 Healthy credit creation. Observable: TOTBKCR (wired via co-anchor) + HY OAS + DRTSCILM (SLOOS net % tightening C&I, collected since v2.3 — easing = <=0; +8.1 i.e. mild tightening at 2026-Q2, so the 'standards easing' half is checkable and currently NOT met). | Benign counter (BIAS_REVIEW) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Establishment/consensus: US soft landing holds — no NBER recession in 2026 and core PCE glides toward ~2.5% Adds a non-debasement voice — the panel was all debasement-sympathetic. Observable: NBER + PCEPILFE. | Establishment / consensus (counter-panel) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Private-credit / PE-insurer stress transmits to PUBLIC markets in 2026 — HY OAS breaks its calm band and/or bank-NBFI lending rolls over, as BDC non-accruals and the pasted PC default index climb. COUNTER (currently winning): stress stays idiosyncratic and gated. HY OAS ~12th pctile (no public leak); Chicago Fed / IMF read 'contained'; default estimates disperse ~2-6% with ~65% distressed restructurings; insurers ~80% IG on CLO holdings and well-capitalized. FALSIFIER (systemic side): HY OAS holds sub-~4% through 2026 with no gate-driven forced-selling event visible in public spreads. Observable: BAMLH0A0HYM2 + credit_transmission.leak_state. | Owner, seed (credit-transmission gauge v2.4) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | Under Warsh, the Fed restarts/extends balance-sheet shrinkage (QT) even after the Dec-2025 bill-buying expansion, leaning on heavier bill issuance to cushion it — net effect is curve-steepening and tighter conditions through the balance sheet even if the policy rate stays put. LEAN: plumbing / roughly neutral (the one non-debasement add). FALSIFIER: WALCL keeps rising (expansion continues) rather than flat/declining, or reserves climb with no drain. CURRENT READ: not yet visible — WALCL hasn't shrunk ($6.74tn), net_liquidity still ~85th pctile, SAAR +2.2%; forward call the balance sheet confirms or denies. Observable: WALCL, WRESBAL, bill_share / FISCAL_MKT_BILLS_BN, SOFR-IORB, T10Y2Y. His separate 'market underpricing Trump cuts' view is NOT seeded (likely predates Warsh's hawkish turn — re-date before use). | Wang (Fed Guy / Monetary Macro) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | The ~65-month global liquidity cycle peaked around Aug-2025 and is rolling down into 2027; the 2026-28 refinancing wall (~$40tn rollovers by 2027) absorbs liquidity, making 2026 tough for risk assets and favoring commodities / gold / long-duration bonds. LEAN: caution / late-cycle. FALSIFIER: SP500 keeps making new highs through 2026 with US net_liquidity holding >70th pctile -> falsifies the liquidity-driven risk-asset downturn (for the US). CURRENT READ: split scorecard — equity call currently WRONG (SPX ATH, US net_liquidity ~85th pctile, positive SAAR); commodity/gold rotation RIGHT (gold ~95th pctile, CPER ~99.8th, gold_oil elevated); log both halves. SCOPE GAP: Howell's real signal is GLOBAL liquidity; TripWire net_liquidity is US-only (WALCL-TGA-RRP) — the divergence between his global GLI (down) and US net_liquidity (up) is itself the read; global-liquidity proxy is a panel_gap candidate. Observable: net_liquidity, MD_XAUUSD, CPER, gold_oil, SP500. | Howell (CrossBorder Capital, GLI) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | The ~2.5-3% 2026 growth priced into markets is too high; the oil shock (Brent >$110 earlier in 2026) feeds inflation and drags real growth, and both stocks AND bonds are mispricing it — both can struggle as yields rise. LEAN: caution (NOT a benign counterweight — an earlier characterization of Elliott as data-first counterweight was stale and corrected 2026-07-22). FALSIFIER: growth_fundamentals holds expansion AND SP500 holds gains through 2026 with no oil-driven inflation re-accel -> the 'both assets struggle' call fails. CURRENT READ: challenged — growth_fundamentals 10/10 expansion, claims ~3rd pctile, equities ATH all cut against 'growth won't hold'. His oil-> inflation leg partially aligns with the existing July-CPI re-acceleration entry (window 2026-08-12) — CROSS-REFERENCE, do not double-count. Observable: growth_fundamentals vs regime.growth_norm, SP500, DCOILWTICO/CL_F, inflation_fundamentals, DGS10. | Elliott (Unlimited Funds) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | The next Fed policy-rate change is a HIKE (stated confidence '100%'; 'must be coming'; >=6 more months of intensified tightening). id: howell_2026_next_move_hike. Checkpoints: Jackson Hole late-Aug 2026 (his stated tell); FOMC 2026-09-15/16; FOMC late-Oct (one week pre-election); December. FALSIFIED BY: a cut as the next move, OR year-end with no hike (the 'must be coming' framing was near-term). Context at seed: rate_path DGS2-DFF +59bp 'hikes-priced' (supports); Fed funds futures ~2/3 odds of no September move per MacroVoices desk 2026-08-13 (timing pressure against). Error type accepted: scoring a near-term-framed call on its stated year-end window may under-credit a hike that lands in early 2027 — the window is his framing, not ours. | Howell (CrossBorder Capital) — MacroVoices #545, produced 2026-08-13 (primary) | 2026-12-31 |
| open | IF the Sept or Oct FOMC flips the monetary-policy cycle to a headwind (hike + balance-sheet tightening), a 1998-style 15-20% SPX correction follows over ~2-4 months, uptrend resuming after. id: dale_1998_correction. CONDITIONAL on the flip occurring — his own unprompted falsifier: Fed doesn't tighten AND the tape trends higher => 'skate through and have a fantastic year.' Checkpoints: FOMC 2026-09-15/16 primary. Context at seed: distance_to_flip fragility false, SP500 +8.67 sigma from its 7,163 flip level; no funding stress (sofr_iorb 0bp, SRF $0); futures ~2/3 no-move — HIS FALSIFIER BRANCH IS THE ONE CURRENTLY GAINING PROBABILITY. Score the conditional honestly: no flip => the correction leg never activates, and that outcome routes to skate-through, not to 'wrong'. | Dale (42 Macro) — Thoughtful Money session 2026-08-05 (primary); promotes dale-darius-42macro.md open item #1 as previously framed | 2026-12-31 |
| open | The bond market forces a Fed-Treasury merger into explicit yield curve control - the 'Fedsury' - probably this year, probably in the lame-duck Congress between the midterms and January. id: dale_fedsury_lameduck. LEAN: debasement / plumbing — adds to the same side as the standing Durable YCC entry, at a much nearer date. MECHANISM: the gap between spot 10y and his 5.83% fair value is a debt the market collects; collecting it pressures Bessent and Warsh until yield management is formalised. WHAT COUNTS — an ACTION, announced: (a) an FOMC statement or Fed announcement naming an explicit yield target or yield RANGE for Treasury securities, or (b) a formal Treasury-Fed joint statement or accord on yield management. Logged in data/events/events.jsonl as a named_policy_response. WHAT EXPLICITLY DOES NOT COUNT, and this is the load-bearing half: continued reserve-management purchases, an enlarged buyback programme, a bill-heavy issuance mix, or any further arrival of the SUBSTANCE of coordination without the announcement. That is the "already YCC" reading of Session 08, it is a live definitional dispute in his own profile, and letting it resolve this entry would make the entry unfalsifiable — the exact defect that put Paradigm D beyond scoring. FALSIFIED IF: no such announcement by 2027-01-31. HIS HEDGE, RECORDED SO SCORING STAYS FAIR: he said it "probably won't be [imminent]" and "if they don't, they don't, but I think it's a risk" in the same breath as the window. Score the TIMING claim only. A FAILED here does not touch the structural when-not-if claim, which lives in the standing Durable YCC entry and runs to 2029-12-31. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-1 — an announcement-only test can miss a de-facto peg that is never announced. Deliberate: an unannounced peg is unfalsifiable by construction, and his own Framework 13 ambiguity doctrine predicts substance-without-announcement, so the two entries cover the two branches between them. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 940a8c83bc33, 2026-09-03T20:19Z): DGS10 4.79 (2026-09-01, 59.6th pct of 40.1y) — note the rates lane was a session behind at seed; DGS30 5.27 (09-01). His fair value 5.83% and his quoted 112bp gap are HIS numbers, unscoreable by construction (five proprietary models, rule 4). CROSS-REFERENCES: "Durable YCC" (window 2029-12-31) and "Fed transition from funds-rate to repo-rate targeting" (2028-12-31) — this is a NEARER, more specific version of the same construct, NOT a second event. DO NOT DOUBLE-COUNT: if the announcement lands, it resolves this entry and advances those; if it does not, only this one fails.
| Dale (42 Macro) — Macro Minute excerpt, YouTube cC2abmDDIqQ, uploaded 2026-09-03 (primary but a PARTIAL EXCERPT; capture in the profile, Session 11) | 2027-01-31 |
| open | Gold's bid is monetary and fiscal rather than rate-driven, and it will therefore hold its level through a sustained real-yield state at or above the 95th percentile — the condition under which the rate-driven reading predicts reversion. id: gold_falsifier_2026. LEAN: debasement — this is the entry that costs the base case points if gold is a rate asset. MECHANISM: if gold is a claim on the debt arithmetic rather than on the real rate, a sustained 95th-percentile real yield should not force reversion. If it is a rate asset, six months at that level is the condition under which it gives the divergence back. OBSERVABLE: MD_XAUUSD daily_close; DFII10 daily_close. NOT live_overlay for gold — the overlay advances its value without advancing as_of, so a resolution read off it is not reproducible. HOSTILE-RATE GATE: DFII10 closes >= 2.14 (p95 of the aligned span from 2007-11-02) on at least 80% of sessions in the window. CONFIRMS: gate held AND MD_XAUUSD >= 4448.80 at 2027-03-01. FALSIFIED: gate held AND MD_XAUUSD <= 3559 (-20% from seed) at 2027-03-01. Calibrated to the -23.7%/126-session in-sample precedent of Feb-Jul 2026, not chosen. PARTIAL: gate held, gold between -20% and 0% — direction the counter-thesis's, magnitude not. VOID (reported as proving nothing, never as a win): DFII10 under 2.14 on more than 20% of sessions, or under 1.96 (p90) at resolution. Gold rallying into FALLING real yields is the ordinary mechanism and is evidence for neither school. Named in advance so hindsight cannot convert it into a confirmation. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 — the 80% gate and the -20% magnitude will let a genuine slow reversion resolve PARTIAL rather than FALSIFIED. Deliberate: a falsifier that fires easily against the owner's largest conviction will be argued with, and one that gets argued with has already failed. DOES NOT SETTLE: the debasement thesis (this is one entailment over six months); whether the level is right (§4 refused to supply a valuation); anything about a fiat cycle — the aligned span starts 2007-11-02, contains one gold bear market and no 1970s. SEED MARKS (served, build fc73b902d1d2, snapshot 2026-09-01T00:46:24Z): MD_XAUUSD 4448.80 (2026-08-31), DFII10 2.42 (2026-08-28). AT RATIFICATION (served, build a57d4f012ca1, 2026-09-02): MD_XAUUSD 4328.58 (2026-09-01), DFII10 2.44 (2026-08-31) — already 2.7% below the seed and inside the PARTIAL band, and the marks were kept anyway.
| Owner analyst session 2026-08-31 (framing) + this repository's calibration (data/panel/GOLD_FALSIFIER_2026-08-31.md); owner-ratified 2026-09-02 | 2027-03-01 |
| open | Fundamental disinflationary environment between now and end-2027: demand running below potential (four-quarter real GDP heading to ~1.4% vs 2.0% potential), trimmed-mean PCE decelerating, unit labor costs ~0.5% — so the Fed should NOT hike. id: rosenberg_2027_disinflation. LEAN: benign / cyclical counter — the seat that makes the debasement case earn it. FALSIFIED IF: core PCE (PCEPILFE) 3m SAAR prints above 3.0% on two consecutive monthly vintages inside the window — the forward-looking measure he himself argues from, not the YoY. ALSO WEAKENED IF the Fed hikes AND the labor market does not crack within two quarters (his cost-of-error argument fails). CONFIRMS: core PCE 3m SAAR <= 2.5% sustained with YoY converging toward it through 2027. SEEDED AT (served, build 8b79e3cf21ca): PCEPILFE 3m SAAR 2.89 / 6m 3.76 / YoY 3.29, impulse decelerating (as_of 2026-06-01); CPI core 1.64 / 2.42 / 2.47 (as_of 2026-07-01). Inputs he cites that are NOT served: GDPPOT, ULCNFB, PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL, DSPIC96 — build-gap candidates; this entry scores only the observable half. Cross-reference: the benign-counter line 'Core PCE <= 2.5% YoY two consecutive months in 2026' (2026-07-09) — related, different measure and window; do not double-count. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 on the hike half — a late-2027 re-acceleration after a 2026 hike scores against him only if the two-print rule trips. | Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) — Excess Returns, ~2026-08-05 (primary) | 2027-12-31 |
| open | Credit turns roughly one year ahead of the AI-driven equity peak. id: rosenberg_credit_leads_equity. LEAN: caution. THE BEST-SPECIFIED OF THE SEVEN, and the reason is worth copying: it names UNTESTED explicitly and refuses to let a non-firing mechanism count as confirmation, which is the property most seeded entries lack. It also resolves the standing open item in his profile. MECHANISM: credit markets price the funding stress of an investment boom before the equity market prices its earnings disappointment. OBSERVABLE: t=0 is the FIRST session on which credit_transmission.hy_band_break == true. The equity peak is the SP500 all-time close that is subsequently not exceeded for 180 calendar days. CONFIRMS: the equity peak follows t=0 by 270-450 days. WEAKENED: lag of 450-550 days — direction his, calibration not. FALSIFIED IF: the equity peak PRECEDES t=0, or the lag exceeds 550 days. UNTESTED — the state that matters most here: if hy_band_break never fires inside the window, this entry resolves NOT ACTIVATED. A mechanism that did not fire is not a mechanism that was right, and the absence of a credit break must never be reported as his call working. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 — the 180-day confirmation lag means the equity peak is only identifiable half a year after the fact, so this entry will resolve late by construction. Accepted deliberately: a peak called in real time is not a peak, it is a drawdown. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 78f16b8c334e, 2026-09-02T21:04Z): hy_band_break FALSE, leak_state contained; HY OAS 2.63 (2026-08-31) at the 2.1st pct and IG OAS 0.80 at the 28.4th — BOTH short_window, n=825 over 3.1y, so the percentile is cited with its span and is NOT a historic low; delta_bp_20s -15 on HY, i.e. still TIGHTENING. bizd is the one elevated upstream input (13.35, 16.8% off its 1y high). SP500 7,631.47 (2026-09-01), 99.2nd pct of 10.1y, peak on record 7,798.99 (2026-08-13). CROSS-REFERENCES: hunt_2026_reversal, dale_20260731_tradeable_low.
| Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) — David Lin session, 2026-09-01 (owner-supplied draft, processed 2026-09-02) | 2027-12-31 |
| open | Fed transition from funds-rate to repo-rate targeting | Dale, Jan-2026 deck | 2028-12-31 |
| open | The risk-asset bubble peaks in the second half of 2027 or the first half of 2028. id: dale_bubble_peak_2027h2. LEAN: caution on timing, bullish until then — the dated end of a thesis that is otherwise open-ended, which is why it is worth having. OBSERVABLE, AND IT IS DELIBERATELY BORROWED: the peak is the SP500 all-time close that is subsequently not exceeded for 180 calendar days — THE SAME DEFINITION as rosenberg_credit_leads_equity. That is the point of seeding it this way: two panel seats now resolve on one observable with one definition, so their timing models can be compared directly instead of argued. This is the first such pair in the file. CONFIRMS: the peak so defined falls between 2027-07-01 and 2028-06-30. FALSIFIED IF: the peak precedes 2027-07-01, or SP500 is still setting new all-time closes after 2028-06-30 (a bubble that has not peaked by then missed his window, whatever happens later). RESOLUTION LAG IS STRUCTURAL: the 180-day confirmation means a peak inside the window is only identifiable ~6 months after the fact, hence the 2028-12-31 window against a 2028-06-30 claim. Accepted deliberately — a peak called in real time is not a peak. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 — the 180-day rule will not distinguish a true top from a long, deep consolidation that later resolves higher. Same trade-off the Rosenberg entry accepts, and taking it identically is what makes the two comparable. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 940a8c83bc33): SP500 7,666.60 (2026-09-02), 99.3rd pct of 10.2y and a fresh all-time close — so the peak has NOT yet been set and the clock has not started. Percentile span cited because 10.2y is the collected window, not the index's history. CROSS-REFERENCES: rosenberg_credit_leads_equity (same peak definition, different mechanism and different timing model — do NOT double-count; they can both be right, or one right on the date and the other on the cause); dale_20260731_tradeable_low (a near-term drawdown call that is NOT inconsistent with a 2027-28 peak).
| Dale (42 Macro) — Macro Minute excerpt, YouTube cC2abmDDIqQ, uploaded 2026-09-03 (primary but a PARTIAL EXCERPT); stated as the current base case | 2028-12-31 |
| open | Durable YCC | Dale, Jan-2026 deck | 2029-12-31 |
| open | >50% odds of US fiscal crisis or total war within 5–7 years Probabilistic claim — scoring rule is qualitative. | Dale, Jan-2026 deck | 2031-12-31 |
| standing | Yen 200, then 300 | Johnson, May-2026 | long (unspecified) |
| standing | Gold/oil ratio >100 over the cycle | Gromen, structural | cycle |
| standing | MOVE >130 always answered ('Alamo') Carry with the RMP-era caveat from gauge 7: standing purchases make the discrete 130 trigger the tail case. | Gromen, structural | standing |
| standing | Oil >= 85: 'once it hits 85, it starts to dysfunction' — the operative Alamo substitute for the oil leg INSTRUMENT (ruled 2026-08-14): BZ_F daily close >= 85 fires; a SINGLE close suffices (threshold observation, not a regime flip). DCOILBRENTEU is fallback ONLY if BZ_F is missing 3+ sessions; WTI (CL_F/DCOILWTICO) NEVER satisfies a Brent-benchmark claim. STATE AT BINDING: FIRED — BZ_F 88.98 (2026-08-12), >= 85 for three consecutive closes since re-crossing at 87.72 on 2026-08-10; under this instrument it had also fired 2026-07-29..07-31 (90.74 peak) before dropping to 79.36 (08-04). The oscillation around the line is itself a reading: 'dysfunction begins at 85' is being tested repeatedly, and what 'fired' obligates is watching the DYSFUNCTION observables (auction tails, MOVE, sofr_iorb), not calling a price top. Related gap on record: FRED Brent spot printed $4.35 above BZ_F on the shared 08-11 date — the systematic spot-vs-future divergence that forced this ruling. | Gromen, structural (twice-stated across two sessions) | standing |
| standing | Multi-year 'funk,' not crash | Bianco, Dec-2025 | multi-year |
| standing | S2 intervention timeline: verbal in days; Treasury-side ≤3 weeks or at QRA; balance-sheet action only on confirmed dysfunction | Owner, seed | conditional (activates on S2 trigger) |
| standing | If the Fed eases (or is perceived too easy relative to fiscal/inflation reality), the long end sells off and term premium rises — tightening financial conditions while intending to ease. The Fed risks losing control of the long end -> term-premium-led steepening ('can the Fed out-dove the market?'). LEAN: fiscal / vigilante mechanism (reinforces the fiscal-dominance lean, but as a MECHANISM with a falsifier). FALSIFIER: term premium stays mid-range and the long end does NOT lead even if the Fed eases; or the curve FLATTENS on easing rather than steepening. CURRENT READ: dormant trigger — Warsh is hawkish, so the 'Fed eases' precondition isn't active; this is the S2 vigilante mechanism (line 104) with a named owner, fires if the 7/29 hike-risk resolves dovish. Observable: THREEFYTP10 (ACM term premium, ~52nd pctile), DGS30, DGS20, T10Y2Y. | Constan (Damped Spring) | conditional (activates on a Fed-easing signal) |
| standing | Foreign/EM central banks keep rotating reserves from US Treasuries toward gold and hard assets ('outside money'); gold's monetary role rises and the dollar's reserve role erodes over the cycle, with a structural inflationary bias in the West (Bretton Woods III). STATUS 2026-08-21: DORMANT — roster vetting (data/panel/ROSTER_VETTING_2026-08-21.md) found no public 2026 appearance or publication (press page ends 2025-03); the entry stays standing but is not refreshed and its source cannot currently be re-dated. LEAN: debasement / structural (overlaps the existing panel's debasement axis) — seed as a STANDING entry, not a live trade signal; low current output, mixed multi-year scoreboard, score qualitatively like the Gromen/Johnson standing entries. FALSIFIER/TENSION: dollar reserve role and DTWEXBGS strengthen durably -> the dollar-weakness leg fails. CURRENT READ: split — gold leg RIGHT (ripping, ~95th pctile, CB gold buying real); dollar-weakness leg WRONG so far (DTWEXBGS ~86th pctile, firm). Directly contests Johnson's milkshake on the dollar axis — that disagreement is the useful part, mapped to DTWEXBGS which resolves it. SCOPE GAP: the cleanest BW3 observables (official-sector gold buying, TIC foreign Treasury holdings) are NOT collected — track on gold + broad-dollar for now; flag TIC / CB-gold as panel_gap candidates. Observable: MD_XAUUSD, DTWEXBGS. | Pozsar (Ex Uno Plures / BW3) | structural |
| standing | The canonical debt-deflation voices have vacated the thesis: Hoisington's Q2-2026 letter (2026-07-16) migrates its equilibrium-inflation range to 3.5-4.5% with 'significant risk of episodes above 5%' and cuts duration from ~21y to under 1y; Albert Edwards (Odd Lots 2026-05-15) declares the Ice Age over. Logged as a CROWDING signal about the debasement consensus, not as vindication of it. id: hunt_2026_reversal. This entry is about the PANEL, not the market: when the best-credentialed opponents capitulate, the counter-thesis seat is empty and the consensus is crowded (BIAS_REVIEW §2). Scoring is qualitative. It 'pays off' for the debasement case only if the variable Hunt reversed ON — money velocity rising with inflation above 3% — actually persists; it scores AGAINST the consensus if disinflation resumes after the two loudest bears left (the late-capitulation shape). Observable today: the core PCE ladder (served). M2 velocity (M2V) is NOT collected and is the cleanest scoreboard between Hunt's new view and the standing disinflation seat (Shvets, provisional) — ROADMAP candidate. Keep ingesting Hoisington's free quarterly letters as a bond-bear data point. Cross-reference: rosenberg_2027_disinflation (opposite sign on the same ladder). | Hunt (Hoisington) Q2-2026 letter 2026-07-16; Edwards (SocGen) Odd Lots 2026-05-15 — recorded 2026-08-21 | standing |
| standing | The yield backup is a Fed-expectation reset under a new chair, not a fiscal or term-premium story: breakevens are flat and the move is in the real rate. id: rosenberg_yield_attribution. LEAN: counter to fiscal dominance — this is the entry that costs the debasement case points if the long end is being repriced by the Fed path rather than by the debt arithmetic. THE FALSIFIER IS OURS, NOT HIS. He did not state one; the repository supplies it, and that is recorded so nobody later credits him with a test he never accepted. OBSERVABLE: decomposition.term_premium (ACM split) and the decomposition windows. NEVER the 2s10s spread alone — a spread is not an attribution, and §21's instrument discipline applies. CONFIRMS: the decomposition windows stay real-led with tp_share_of_nominal low, and the 2s10s does not steepen materially while breakevens stay pinned. WEAKENED IF: 2s10s steepens 25bp or more from +41bp while T10YIE stays below 2.40 AND decomposition.term_premium rises through its 70th percentile. That combination is the fiscal signature, and it is the one reading his attribution cannot absorb. DOES NOT SETTLE: the term-premium question at the long end. Over 250 sessions the 10y rose 52bp against breakevens -10bp — a ~62bp real move — which is exactly where a term-premium story lives. His claim is about the MARGINAL move being front-end led; it does not hand him the exclusive reading, and the check file says so. ERROR ACCEPTED: type-2 — a standing window with no resolution date can drift indefinitely. Reviewed at each FOMC; if the fiscal signature has not appeared by 2027-06-30, close it as unresolved rather than letting silence accrue to him. CONTEXT AT SEED (served, build 78f16b8c334e, 2026-09-02T21:04Z): ACM term premium 0.8751 (2026-08-28), 56.8th pct of 36.7y — MID-RANGE, so neither school is currently vindicated; T10YIE 2.35 (2026-09-01), 73.3rd pct of 23.7y, which is 5bp under the 2.40 pin; 2s10s +41bp; ytd decomposition real-led (+56bp nominal on +50bp real, +6bp breakeven); since_trough_252s real-led (+78bp on +76bp real). CHECKPOINTS: FOMC 2026-09-16, 2026-10-28, 2026-12-16. CROSS-REFERENCES: read_20260818_real_led_supply, read_20260820_long_end_repression.
| Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) — David Lin session, 2026-09-01 (owner-supplied draft, processed 2026-09-02) | standing |
| resolved | SLR reduction VERIFIED via public regulatory record (not Dale's deck): OCC/Fed/FDIC final rule modifying the eSLR adopted 2025-11-25, effective 2026-04-01 (early adoption from 2026-01-01). Note: finalized before the Jan-2026 deck — decision largely already made when the call was logged. | Dale, Jan-2026 deck | 2026-03-31 |
| resolved | June-2026 CPI headline cools while core stays sticky PARTIAL — half-falsified (SPEC_PATCH v2.1.1 §P6.1). Headline cooled ✓ (4.2 -> 3.5 YoY; -0.4 MoM SA, largest drop since Apr-2020; energy -5.7 MoM). Core sticky ✗ — core 0.0 MoM, 2.9 -> 2.6 YoY; shelter +0.1 MoM (smallest since Jan-2021). The miss is the informative half — see Seed B below. | Owner, seed | 2026-07-21 |
| resolved | July CPI headline re-accelerates on energy reversal (ceasefire collapsed Jul-8; June's -9.7% gasoline unwinds) FALSIFIED on its own line (YoY <= 3.5 with crude holding >= current). July print (released 2026-08-12, in the 2026-08-13 collector run): headline YoY 3.5 -> 3.3; MoM +0.07 (332.813 / 332.568, served vintage). Crude held ABOVE the 07-14 mark the entire window - DCOILWTICO 80.44 (07-14) -> 84.77 (08-11), touching 93.08 (07-23) - so the energy reversal HAPPENED and headline disinflated anyway: the gasoline unwind was absorbed. Honest residue: MoM did swing -0.42 -> +0.07, so the monthly direction turned positive, just far too weak to move YoY; and the late-July crude spike lands in the AUGUST print on pass-through lag. An August YoY back above 3.5 would be a NEW observation, not a rescue of this entry - the window was the July print, scored as written. | Owner, seed | 2026-08-12 |
| 2026-09-08 | 3-Year note auction, $58.0bn — results ingest at the next 00:30Z runannounced — TreasuryDirect first-party upcoming feed |
| 2026-09-09 | 9-Year 11-Month note auction reopening, $39.0bn — results ingest at the next 00:30Z runannounced — TreasuryDirect first-party upcoming feed |
| 2026-09-10 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 10Y-20Y — FIRST at the enlarged cap (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607; re-verify against the updated schedule when published |
| 2026-09-10 | 29-Year 11-Month bond auction reopening, $22.0bn — results ingest at the next 00:30Z runannounced — TreasuryDirect first-party upcoming feed |
| 2026-09-11 | August CPI print — 8:30 ETserved next_release_at on CPIAUCSL (FRED release calendar) — verify on bls.gov |
| 2026-09-15 | 19-Year 11-Month bond auction reopening — results ingest at the next 00:30Z runannounced — TreasuryDirect first-party upcoming feed |
| 2026-09-16 | FOMC rate statement + press conference (Sept 15-16 meeting) — checkpoint for dale_1998_correction, howell_2026_next_move_hike, read_20260818_real_led_supplyFOMC published 2026 meeting calendar; not independently owner-verified |
| 2026-09-17 | 9-Year 10-Month note auction reopening — results ingest at the next 00:30Z runannounced — TreasuryDirect first-party upcoming feed |
| 2026-09-18 | Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (Sept 17-18) — Ueda signalled an additional hike is under consideration (09-01); principals:boj_mofSECONDARY — Japan Times / Bloomberg 2026-09-02 via search summary; verify on boj.or.jp |
| 2026-09-24 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 20Y-30Y (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
| 2026-10-01 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 10Y-20Y (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
| 2026-10-08 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 20Y-30Y (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
| 2026-10-15 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 10Y-20Y (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
| 2026-10-27 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 20Y-30Y (>= $4bn)PRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
| 2026-11-02 | Treasury QRA financing estimates (Q4) — 3:00pm ET; carries total borrowing + bill share of net new financingderived from the Monday-estimates pattern; VERIFY against Treasury before relying on it |
| 2026-11-03 | US midterm elections — the hard date on the principals page; principals:white_housestatutory (first Tuesday after the first Monday in November) |
| 2026-11-04 | Treasury QRA refunding announcement (Q4) — 8:30am ET; TGA target, forward-guidance sentence, coupon tablePRIMARY-SOURCED 2026-08-05: the sb0590 statement names Wednesday 2026-11-04 as the next refunding. A Wednesday, consiste |
| 2026-11-04 | Treasury long-end buyback op, 10Y-20Y (>= $4bn) — same day as the Q4 QRA statement; program expires unless renewed therePRIMARY — tentative schedule 2026-08-05 + sb0607 |
Whether the PLATFORM is working — not a market gauge. Status degraded.
in-app indicator: it cannot report that the app itself is unreachable — if the process is down, nothing answers here at all
Every dated prediction we or the panel have made, with its window and status.
Forecasts only teach if they can be WRONG on a date. Scoring the panel (and ourselves) honestly is what separates calibration from narrative — falsified entries are announcements, not embarrassments.
Hand-curated in config/tracker.yaml; urgency computed from the window.
OVERDUE = past its window, score it now. Standing = structural claims with long horizons.