5 policymakers · 4 blocs · 4 moving their way · 5 mixed. Each row scores a short list of numbers against what that actor wants — the change over the stated window is either toward it or against it, and the verdict is the tally. Their own tools are shown but not scored. Open a row's full card for the argument.
Runs the Fed, so he sets the short-term interest rate. He wants inflation back down to 2% and has said that is the job. His nightmare is people deciding inflation is here to stay, because then the rate has to go much higher to prove otherwise.
| Inflation — PCE, yearly change line 2% · +1.70 · breached | 3.7% | -0.10% / 90d | → their way | |
| Core inflation — PCE ex food & energy, yearly | 3.34% | +0.01% / 90d | ← against | |
| Where markets think inflation lands (5y5y forward) | 2.33% | +0.12% / 60d | ← against | |
| Unemployment — his escape hatch, not a goal | 4.1% | -0.20% / 90d | their tool — not scored | |
| The fed funds rate — his tool | 3.63% | +0.00% / 60d | their tool — not scored |
Runs the Treasury, so he has to borrow about $700bn a quarter without long-term yields blowing up. He wants the 30-year yield lower and has already spent two tools on it (a joint yen operation, doubled bond buybacks). His nightmare is a bond auction nobody wants to buy.
| 30-year yield line 5.34% · -0.09 · clear | 5.25% | +0.07% / 30d | ← against | |
| 10-year yield line 4.8% · -0.03 · clear | 4.77% | +0.14% / 30d | ← against | |
| Term premium — what buybacks are aimed at | 0.88% | +0.20% / 60d | ← against | |
| Treasury's cash balance vs its stated path line 950$bn · +17.93 · marked | 967.93$bn | +57.16$bn / 30d | → their way | |
| The yen (USD/JPY) — the allied front | 156 | -1.80 / 30d | → their way |
Wants lower rates, a strong stock market and cheap gasoline by the midterm election on November 3rd, and has said he will not lean on the Fed chair over a hike. His only direct levers are tariffs, spending, the oil reserve, and what he says out loud.
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.71% | +0.28% / 60d | ← against | |
| The fed funds rate | 3.63% | +0.00% / 60d | = flat | |
| Stocks — S&P 500 | 7,719 | +181.17 / 60d | → their way | |
| Oil — WTI | 91.48$ | +21.75$ / 60d | ← against | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | -0.20% / 90d | → their way |
Japan's central bank and finance ministry. They spent tens of billions in late July to stop the yen collapsing past 163 and got it to 157; a third of that has already come back. A rate hike on September 18th is the only fix everyone agrees would hold — and it hurts their own bond market.
| The yen (USD/JPY) — lower is stronger yen line 163.73 · -7.73 · clear | 156 | -1.80 / 30d | → their way | |
| Their dollars parked at the New York Fed — the war chest | 357.22$bn | +19.78$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Japanese 10-year yield — their tool, and their cost | 2.67% STALE | +0.33% / 90d | their tool — not scored |
China's central bank. It has bought gold for 21 months straight and keeps the yuan on a short leash. We only ever see it in the price — there is no purchase or reserves series here — so this card is the thinnest, on purpose.
| The yuan (USD/CNY) — lower is stronger yuan line 6.78 · -0.06 · marked | 6.73 | -0.07 / 60d | → their way | |
| US real yields — the cost of holding gold instead of Treasuries | 2.42% | +0.16% / 60d | ← against | |
| Gold — their footprint, not a goal | 4,429$ | +351.73$ / 60d | their tool — not scored |
The big banks that must bid at every Treasury auction and hold what they buy. They break when they are already full and get forced to take more — which is exactly what happened on August 18th, the day before Treasury doubled its buybacks.
| Funding stress — repo rate minus the Fed's floor (SOFR − IORB) | 0.01pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Settlement fails — the plumbing breaking | 76.66$bn | -6.84$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Long bonds sitting in their warehouse (11–21y) | 65$bn | -12.39$bn / 60d | → their way |
Money-market funds and stablecoin issuers — the buyers Treasury's bill-heavy borrowing is designed for. Their cushion at the Fed (the RRP) is empty, so every new bill is now paid for out of bank reserves. They break when bills get scarce or a stablecoin gets redeemed.
| Bill yield above the Fed's floor (3-month bill − IORB) | 0.24pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Bills outstanding — what they are asked to absorb | 7,248$bn | +557.40$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Cash parked at the Fed (RRP) — the cushion, shown not scored line 2.25$bn · -1.57 · marked | 0.68$bn | -0.97$bn / 30d | their tool — not scored |
Companies buying back their own stock — the biggest single buyer of US equities. The bid runs on cheap debt and fat profits and switches off around earnings by rule, not by mood.
| Cost of borrowing — investment-grade spread | 0.81% | +0.06% / 60d | ← against | |
| Cost of borrowing — BBB spread | 1% | +0.06% / 60d | ← against | |
| Stocks — S&P 500 | 7,719 | +181.17 / 60d | → their way | |
| Corporate profits (quarterly) | 4,302$bn | +510.21$bn / 180d | → their way |
Hedge funds running the Treasury basis trade, trend-followers, and volatility-targeting funds. None of them decide anything — repo cost, margin and volatility decide for them — which is why when something breaks, they are the first footprint.
| Repo tail — 99th-percentile SOFR above the median | 0.08pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Volatility — VIX | 14.32 | -2.18 / 30d | → their way | |
| Leveraged short in 10y futures (% of open interest) — shown, not scored | -39.09% | -1.56% / 60d | their tool — not scored |
Runs the Fed, so he sets the short-term interest rate. He wants inflation back down to 2% and has said that is the job. His nightmare is people deciding inflation is here to stay, because then the rate has to go much higher to prove otherwise.
A new chair who has refused to publish a reaction function, told the market not to trade the Fed, and named price stability the predominant focus with PCE at 3.7% YoY / 4.1% 6m — thirteen days before an FOMC the market prices at a 55–66% hike.
Hike 25bp, no guidance about the next one. Jackson Hole moved the September distribution 21.5pp toward a hike; a hold after that reads as a retreat unless the payroll before the meeting prints U3 at least 0.2pp above its prior vintage (Rosenberg's reading of his bar).
A hold with T5YIFR flat and no escape-hatch print — then the binding constraint was the labor market, not prices, and the 'quieter Fed' is quieter than the tape assumed.
| Inflation — PCE, yearly change line 2% · +1.70 · breached | 3.7% | -0.10% / 90d | → their way | |
| Core inflation — PCE ex food & energy, yearly | 3.34% | +0.01% / 90d | ← against | |
| Where markets think inflation lands (5y5y forward) | 2.33% | +0.12% / 60d | ← against | |
| Unemployment — his escape hatch, not a goal | 4.1% | -0.20% / 90d | their tool — not scored | |
| The fed funds rate — his tool | 3.63% | +0.00% / 60d | their tool — not scored |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| 2% PCE, 12-month — the objective he called firm and fixedstated Warsh · JH 2026-08-28 | PCEPI | 2 | 3.7 | +1.70 | BREACHED |
| Hike bar, September: hikes unless U3 prints ≥0.2pp above prior vintage or core comes 0.1 soft — ROSENBERG'S reading, not Warsh's wordsattributed Rosenberg (attributed) · tracker rosenberg_sep_hike; measure of 'core' undeclared in the surviving source | UNRATE | — | — | — | — |
| 'Hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive' — a judgment, no numberstated Warsh · JH 2026-08-28 | — | — | — | — |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| Core inflation re-accelerates or medium-term expectations (5y5y) break higher BREACHED line 2 · now 3.7 | Hike 25bp; refuse to state a path | DFF 3.63 2026-09-03 T5YIFR 2.33 2026-09-04 | statedJH 2026-08-28 'we have work to do'; 07-29 dissents |
| A weak payroll lands before the meeting (U3 up 0.2pp or more vs prior vintage) | Hold, on principle 1 — trends over prints; hawks dissent again | UNRATE 4.1 2026-08-01 DFF 3.63 2026-09-03 | attributedRosenberg's reading of his bar (tracker rosenberg_sep_hike); JH principle 1 |
| The long end breaks disorderly (30Y through Treasury's lines) | Nothing on the balance sheet — leave it to Treasury; at most repo/SRF tools | DGS30 5.25 2026-09-03 RPONTSYD 0 2026-09-04 | statedJH principle 5: unconventional policy 'sparingly, if at all' |
| Funding stress — SOFR sustained above IORB | The SRF is the ceiling; reserve-management bill purchases continue | SOFR 3.66 2026-09-03 IORB 3.65 2026-09-07 RPONTSYD 0 2026-09-04 WALCL 6,737,204 2026-09-02 | stated07-29 directive (minutes) |
| Markets go back to trading the Fed's next move | Less communication, not more — the 'hall of mirrors' doctrine | THREEFYTP10 0.88 2026-08-28 | statedJH 2026-08-28 |
If expectations move (T5YIFR/T10YIE break higher with oil), expect a hike delivered WITHOUT guidance about the next one, and a refusal to touch the balance sheet for the long end — he has said the short rate is the tool. Disconfirmer: a hike paired with a stated path, or any long-end purchase language, would mean the 'quieter Fed' doctrine did not survive contact.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-05-21 | Took office (derived: '100th day' on 08-28)JH 2026-08-28 |
| 2026-07-14 | Testified to committee, same morning as June CPIconfig/whatifs.yaml |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC: hold 3.50–3.75, vote 9–3, Hammack/Kashkari/Logan for +25bpdocs/evidence/FOMC_2026-07-29_MINUTES.md |
| 2026-08-19 | Minutes released: 'many participants' see tightening likely if inflation does not decline; balance-sheet composition on the tabledocs/evidence/FOMC_2026-07-29_MINUTES.md |
| 2026-08-28 | Jackson Hole 'In Our Time': no reaction function, price stability predominant; Sept hike odds 34→56% on the daydata/panel/2026-08-28-WARSH-JACKSON-HOLE-PREPARED-TEXT.txt; JACKSON_HOLE_2026_G1_SCORING |
| PCE 12m and 6m change — 'a firm, fixed target' at 2%JH 2026-08-28 | PCEPI | 3.7 YoY % | 85 n=469, 39.0y | 2026-07-01 | |
| PCEPILFE | 3.34 YoY % | 82 n=469, 39.0y | 2026-07-01 | ||
| Share of the 199 PCE components rising >3% (54% 12m / 49% 6m vs 32% pre-pandemic) | not collected — BEA component detail not collected — a build candidate; the only number in the speech we cannot reproduce | ||||
| Medium-term inflation expectations and swaps compensation — 'well anchored … must be closely minded'JH 2026-08-28 | T5YIFR | 2.33 | 57 n=5924, 23.7y | 2026-09-04 | |
| T10YIE | 2.35 | 73 n=5924, 23.7y | 2026-09-04 | ||
| Level and change in asset prices across sectors; 'market internals'JH 2026-08-28 | SP500 | 7,719 | 100 n=2555, 10.2y | 2026-09-04 | |
| VIXCLS | 14.32 | 27 n=9266, 36.7y | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Prices and trading volumes of Treasury securitiesJH 2026-08-28 (volumes: auction_internals, not a series) | DGS10 | 4.77 | 59 n=10039, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | |
| DGS30 | 5.25 | 59 n=10034, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Foreign-exchange value of the dollarJH 2026-08-28 | DTWEXBGS | 118.75 | 79 n=5179, 20.7y | 2026-08-28 | |
| Cost and availability of credit — spreads 'near the low ends', C&I standards 'on the easier end'JH 2026-08-28 | BAMLC0A0CM | 0.81 | 35 n=827, 3.2y · short window | 2026-09-03 | |
| BAMLH0A0HYM2 | 2.65 | 4 n=828, 3.2y · short window | 2026-09-03 | ||
| DRTSCILM | 0 | 51 n=146, 36.2y | 2026-07-01 | ||
| BUSLOANS | 2,899 | 99 n=481, 40.0y | 2026-07-01 | ||
| A broad set of commodities — 'the recent rise … bears watching'JH 2026-08-28 | DCOILWTICO | 91.48 | 89 n=10099, 40.1y | 2026-09-01 | |
| CPER | 39.95 | 100 n=3722, 14.8y | 2026-09-04 | ||
| Four-week claims — 'an empirically robust real-time indicator'; unemployment 4.1%JH 2026-08-28 | ICSA | 206,000 | 2 n=2094, 40.1y | 2026-08-29 | |
| UNRATE | 4.1 | 17 n=479, 39.9y | 2026-08-01 | ||
| Capex growth and its second derivative; PDFP; S&P profits +20%JH 2026-08-28 | PNFIC1 | 3,883 | 100 n=78, 19.2y | 2026-04-01 | |
| CP | 4,302 | 100 n=160, 39.8y | 2026-04-01 | ||
| Money — central-bank and bank-createdJH 2026-08-28 principle 6 | M2SL | 23,218 | 100 n=481, 40.0y | 2026-07-01 | |
| TOTBKCR | 19,830 | 100 n=2093, 40.1y | 2026-08-26 | ||
“We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“Certain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
Jackson Hole prepared textRuns the Treasury, so he has to borrow about $700bn a quarter without long-term yields blowing up. He wants the 30-year yield lower and has already spent two tools on it (a joint yen operation, doubled bond buybacks). His nightmare is a bond auction nobody wants to buy.
The one principal who has already acted twice in five weeks — a joint yen intervention and an intra-quarter doubling of long-end buybacks — and narrated the next escalation on television the day after; every lever he holds is a lever the Fed's chair has said he will not pull.
Renew and enlarge the buybacks at 11-04, keep coupons flat, stay bill-heavy; escalate the cap first if the 30Y retests 5.34. He has already narrated the next step ('could be more than $4 billion').
A coupon-size INCREASE at 11-04, or the 30Y through 5.50 for a sustained stretch with no new action — then there is no ceiling and the repression read is wrong.
| 30-year yield line 5.34% · -0.09 · clear | 5.25% | +0.07% / 30d | ← against | |
| 10-year yield line 4.8% · -0.03 · clear | 4.77% | +0.14% / 30d | ← against | |
| Term premium — what buybacks are aimed at | 0.88% | +0.20% / 60d | ← against | |
| Treasury's cash balance vs its stated path line 950$bn · +17.93 · marked | 967.93$bn | +57.16$bn / 30d | → their way | |
| The yen (USD/JPY) — the allied front | 156 | -1.80 / 30d | → their way |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| 30Y 5.34% intraday (08-18, 19-year high) — the level he acted the next morningrevealed revealed by the 08-19 action · QRA_BASELINE §1d | DGS30 | 5.34 | 5.25 | -0.09 | clear |
| 30Y > 5.50% sustained with NO new action — the house falsifier for 'there is a ceiling'inferred house (tracker read_20260820_long_end_repression) · QRA_BASELINE §2b | DGS30 | 5.5 | 5.25 | -0.25 | clear |
| 'Bessent is never going to let the 10y go over 4.7–4.8' — GROMEN's line, fails on five closes ≥4.80 with no actionattributed Gromen (attributed) · gromen profile framework 2, promoted 2026-08-21 | DGS10 | 4.8 | 4.77 | -0.03 | clear |
| TGA ~$950bn assumed at end-Septemberstated Treasury sb0590 · QRA_BASELINE stated cash-balance path | WTREGEN | 950 | 967.93 | +17.93 | marked |
| TGA could peak ~$1.05tn (±$50bn) late Octoberstated Treasury sb0590 · QRA_BASELINE stated cash-balance path | WTREGEN | 1050 | 967.93 | -82.06 | marked |
| ≥$4bn per long-end operation from 09-09 — 'could be more than the $4 billion'stated Treasury sb0607 / Bessent CNBC 08-20 · QRA_BASELINE §1d | BUYBACK_LS_10Y20Y_ACCEPTED_BN | 4 | 2 | -2.00 | marked |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| 30Y back above 5.34 into a capacity-exhausted auction clear line 5.34 · now 5.25 | Raise the per-operation cap again or run an off-schedule operation | DGS30 5.25 2026-09-03 BUYBACK_LS_10Y20Y_ACCEPTED_BN 2 2026-08-11 | statedsb0607 08-19; CNBC 08-20 'could be more than the $4 billion' |
| Buybacks fail to hold the long end | Cut long coupon issuance at the QRA, shift the mix further to bills | FISCAL_MKT_BILLS_BN 7,248 2026-08-31 DGS30 5.25 2026-09-03 | revealed'increases' to 'changes' 08-05; 2023 precedent as the 10Y neared 5% |
| Still failing clear line 5.5 · now 5.25 | Draw the TGA to fund buybacks (reported); the SLR-exemption ask | WTREGEN 967,935 2026-09-02 | inferredCNBC 08-24 (sources); QRA_BASELINE section 2b escalation #4 |
| USD/JPY retakes 163 | A second joint yen operation — threatened before executed | MD_USDJPY 156 2026-09-06 WLRRAFOIAL 357,217 2026-09-02 | stated08-03 'will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention' |
| The Fed hikes on 09-16 | No public criticism; the term-premium tools continue | THREEFYTP10 0.88 2026-08-28 DGS30 5.25 2026-09-03 | inferredthe President's stated posture 08-31 |
If the 30Y clears 5.34 again into a capacity-exhausted auction, expect the ladder in the order he has already climbed it: a bigger cap or an off-schedule operation first (he has said so), then an issuance-mix cut to long coupons at the 11-04 QRA, then the SLR exemption ask — each one a Treasury tool because the Fed's chair has ruled out the balance sheet. Disconfirmer: the 30Y through 5.50 for a sustained stretch with none of those — then there is no ceiling and the repression read is wrong (§2b).
| date | what they did |
| 2026-07-31 | US leg of the joint yen intervention (NY Fed sold ~€13bn for yen per Wang); USD/JPY 163.44 → 157.46check 2026-08-12 usdjpy-intervention-retrace; Wang session 01 |
| 2026-08-03 | Confirmed the operation; 'will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention'CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03 (search summary — verify verbatim) |
| 2026-08-05 | Q3 QRA: $125bn refunding, coupons unchanged, 'increases' → 'changes', TGA path $950bn/$1.05tndocs/evidence/QRA_BASELINE.md |
| 2026-08-19 | sb0607: long-end buyback cap ≥ doubled to $4bn from 09-09 — announced ~4h before his own 20Y auctiondocs/evidence/QRA_BASELINE.md §1d |
| 2026-08-20 | CNBC: 'could be more than the $4 billion per issue'; 'part of it is signaling'; yields rose anywayQRA_BASELINE §1d reactions (via Reuters) |
| 2026-08-24 | Reported (sources): could tap the ~$1tn TGA to fund buybacksCNBC 2026-08-24 (search summary; page 403 to this fetcher) |
| 2026-08-30 | Met BoJ Governor Ueda; US 'conveyed strong support for decisive measures to correct the weak yen'Japan Times 09-02 (search summary; page paywalled) |
| 30Y and 10Y yields; 30Y liquidity 'is weak'CNBC 2026-08-20 (search summary) | DGS30 | 5.25 | 59 n=10034, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | |
| DGS10 | 4.77 | 59 n=10039, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Auction takedown by dealers / capacity | not collected — served as auction_internals.absorption (a gauge), not a series — cite the gauge | ||||
| Swap spreads — the supply-indigestion tell Wang says has been quiet | not collected — derived.swap_spread from DTCC; DTCC retention is rolling 2y, the git seed is the only history | ||||
| The cash balance against the stated pathQRA sb0590 | WTREGEN | 967.93 $bn | 96 n=1238, 23.7y | 2026-09-02 | |
| USD/JPY — the allied front07-31 joint intervention | MD_USDJPY | 156 | 94 n=4971, 18.9y | 2026-09-06 | |
| Term premium — what his buybacks are aimed atinferred from the buyback rationale | THREEFYTP10 | 0.88 | 57 n=9151, 36.7y | 2026-08-28 | |
| Bills outstanding and the bill shareMonday financing estimates | FISCAL_MKT_BILLS_BN | 7,248 | 100 n=308, 25.6y | 2026-08-31 | |
“We're going to increase the size of the buyback. I would note that it could be more than the $4 billion per issue.”
CNBC via Reuters — QRA_BASELINE §1d; verify against the CNBC video before citing as verbatim“Part of it is signaling here, and to show that we believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals.”
CNBC via Reuters — QRA_BASELINE §1d“All we're trying to do is get people to focus on the fundamentals and not trade the headlines during a quiet period in a thin market.”
CNBC 2026-08-20 (search summary; page 403 to this fetcher)“This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury's desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants.”
Treasury press release sb0607 (verbatim, fetched 2026-08-21)“The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners.”
Treasury statement on the joint intervention (CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03, search summary)Wants lower rates, a strong stock market and cheap gasoline by the midterm election on November 3rd, and has said he will not lean on the Fed chair over a hike. His only direct levers are tariffs, spending, the oil reserve, and what he says out loud.
Wants lower rates and says so, has said he will not lean on Warsh over a hike, authorised the first US yen-buying since 1998, and faces a midterm on 2026-11-03 — the one hard date on this page that no data release can move.
Quiet on the Fed, loud everywhere else. He pre-empted the fight on 08-31, and the tools that work before November are Treasury's and the oil reserve's.
A public demand for a cut after a hike, or a personnel move at the Fed before 11-03.
| 30-year mortgage rate | 6.71% | +0.28% / 60d | ← against | |
| The fed funds rate | 3.63% | +0.00% / 60d | = flat | |
| Stocks — S&P 500 | 7,719 | +181.17 / 60d | → their way | |
| Oil — WTI | 91.48$ | +21.75$ / 60d | ← against | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | -0.20% / 90d | → their way |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| 2026-11-03 — the hard date; no number attaches to itstated the calendar · US election calendar | — | — | — | — |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| The Fed hikes 09-16 | No public fight — 'I have a lot of respect for him' | DFF 3.63 2026-09-03 EPU_US 944.1 2026-09-05 | statedPBS 2026-08-31 |
| Gasoline spikes into the fall | An SPR release — which Dale argues cannot help, because the constraint is refining | EIA_SPR 286,604 2026-08-28 DCOILWTICO 91.48 2026-09-01 | revealed2022 releases; Dale 08-19 (attributed) |
| The long end breaks | Treasury's tools, via Bessent — buybacks, mix, cash | DGS30 5.25 2026-09-03 | inferredthe 08-19 timing |
| Stocks fall hard before November | Tariff relief or announcements, and jawboning | SP500 7,719 2026-09-04 EPU_US 944.1 2026-09-05 | inferredno primary source — a hypothesis |
If the long end breaks into the midterm window, expect the response to route through Treasury (buybacks, mix, TGA) and energy (SPR, Hormuz posture) — not through the Fed, which he has publicly declined to pressure. Disconfirmer: a public demand for a cut after a hike — that would reopen the Fed-independence channel and change every other principal's calculus.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-07-31 | Authorised the US leg of the joint yen intervention — first US yen-buying since 1998Treasury/CNBC 08-03 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-19 | 'Bemoans Fed interest rate policy, says U.S. should be paying much less' — same day as the buyback doublingCNBC 2026-08-19 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-31 | 'I have a lot of respect for him and he'll do what he has to do' on a possible hike; 'our interest rates are too high'PBS NewsHour (verbatim) |
| The indexinferred | SP500 | 7,719 | 100 n=2555, 10.2y | 2026-09-04 | |
| Gasoline at the pump | not collected — no retail gasoline PRICE series collected — EIA_GASOLINE is stocks; a build candidate (EIA weekly retail price is free) | ||||
| Mortgage rates and the funds ratePBS 08-31 'rates are too high' | MORTGAGE30US | 6.71 | 57 n=2092, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | |
| DFF | 3.63 | 52 n=14658, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Unemploymentinferred | UNRATE | 4.1 | 17 n=479, 39.9y | 2026-08-01 | |
| CrudeDale 08-19 (SPR/refining) | DCOILWTICO | 91.48 | 89 n=10099, 40.1y | 2026-09-01 | |
“I have a lot of respect for him and he'll do what he has to do.”
PBS NewsHour video, remarks on Warsh and possible hikes“I think our interest rates are too high.”
PBS NewsHour videoJapan's central bank and finance ministry. They spent tens of billions in late July to stop the yen collapsing past 163 and got it to 157; a third of that has already come back. A rate hike on September 18th is the only fix everyone agrees would hold — and it hurts their own bond market.
Intervened at 163.73 with the US alongside, got to 157.57, watched a third of it retrace inside eight sessions, and now faces a 09-17/18 meeting the market prices at ~99% for a hike — the one thing Wang says can actually hold the yen.
Hike, and a second joint intervention threatened before the meeting if USD/JPY retakes 163 — the 08-03 language exists to make the threat credible without spending the dollars.
A hold on 09-18 with the yen above 160.
| The yen (USD/JPY) — lower is stronger yen line 163.73 · -7.73 · clear | 156 | -1.80 / 30d | → their way | |
| Their dollars parked at the New York Fed — the war chest | 357.22$bn | +19.78$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Japanese 10-year yield — their tool, and their cost | 2.67% STALE | +0.33% / 90d | their tool — not scored |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| 163.73 — the high the day before the joint op (07-30); the level they defendedrevealed revealed by the 07-30/31 action · CNBC 08-03 (search summary); check 2026-08-12 has 163.44 close 07-29 | MD_USDJPY | 163.73 | 156 | -7.73 | clear |
| 157.57 — where the joint op took it (07-31 close region)revealed market print, reported · CNBC 08-03 (search summary); check 2026-08-12: 157.46 (07-31), 157.22 low (08-02) | MD_USDJPY | 157.57 | 156 | -1.57 | marked |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| USD/JPY above 163 again clear line 163.73 · now 156 | Intervene — jointly if the US will; the pool at the NY Fed is drawn first | MD_USDJPY 156 2026-09-06 WLRRAFOIAL 357,217 2026-09-02 | revealed07-30/31; Wang 08-08 on the funding sequence |
| Intervention fails to hold | Hike the policy rate | IRLTLT01JPM156N 2.67 2026-06-01 STALE MD_USDJPY 156 2026-09-06 | attributedWang 08-08 'a losing war unless you adjust interest rate differentials'; Setser 08-04; Ueda 09-01 signal |
| The JGB long end tantrums | Slow the hike path; long-end purchase operations | IRLTLT01JPM156N 2.67 2026-06-01 STALE | inferredno JGB series collected — declared gap |
| Dollars needed at scale | Foreign repo pool, then FIMA repo, then sell Treasuries — in that order | WLRRAFOIAL 357,217 2026-09-02 H41RESPPALGTRFNWW 0 2026-09-02 SWPT 132 2026-09-02 | attributeddollar_plumbing sequence; Wang 08-08 |
If USD/JPY retakes 163 before 09-18, expect the hike to be delivered (it is the only durable lever both Setser and Wang name) and a second joint operation to be threatened before it is executed — the 08-03 language was written to make the threat credible. Disconfirmer: a hold on 09-18 with the yen above 160 — that would say the MoF/BoJ are choosing the JGB market over the yen, and the intervention was theatre.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-07-30 | Japan solo intervention, reported ¥8.45tn (~$52.8bn); 163.44 → 159.54check 2026-08-12 (reported sizes web-sourced) |
| 2026-07-31 | Joint US–Japan yen-buying — first since 1998; → 157.46check 2026-08-12; CNBC 08-03 |
| 2026-08-03 | MoF and Treasury confirm; readiness for moreCNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-30 | Ueda met Bessent; US support for 'decisive measures'Japan Times 09-02 (search summary) |
| 2026-09-01 | Ueda signals an additional hike is under consideration for the September MPMJapan Times / Bloomberg 09-02 (search summary) |
| USD/JPYthe intervention itself | MD_USDJPY | 156 | 94 n=4971, 18.9y | 2026-09-06 | |
| JGB 10y (monthly)Wang 08-15 channel | IRLTLT01JPM156N | 2.67 | 78 n=450, 37.4y | 2026-06-01 STALE | |
| The US–Japan rate differential | DGS2 | 4.34 | 59 n=10039, 40.1y | 2026-09-03 | |
| Import prices | not collected — not collected | ||||
| Their own dollar pool at the NY FedWang 08-08 | WLRRAFOIAL | 357.22 $bn | 92 n=1238, 23.7y | 2026-09-02 | |
“countered excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months”
Japan Ministry of Finance statement (CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03, search summary — verify verbatim)“a losing war unless you adjust interest rate differentials”
Wang, Markets Weekly (attributed reading, not the BoJ's words)China's central bank. It has bought gold for 21 months straight and keeps the yuan on a short leash. We only ever see it in the price — there is no purchase or reserves series here — so this card is the thinnest, on purpose.
Twenty-one consecutive months of reported gold purchases to July 2026, the largest monthly buy since 2023 in July, and a yuan fix near 6.78 — a reserve manager acting steadily while every Western principal on this page acts in a hurry.
The streak continues regardless of the gold price; the fix stays managed in small steps. The two are separate books.
A reported pause on a gold down-month.
| The yuan (USD/CNY) — lower is stronger yuan line 6.78 · -0.06 · marked | 6.73 | -0.07 / 60d | → their way | |
| US real yields — the cost of holding gold instead of Treasuries | 2.42% | +0.16% / 60d | ← against | |
| Gold — their footprint, not a goal | 4,429$ | +351.73$ / 60d | their tool — not scored |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| 6.7829 — the fix on 2026-08-26 (secondary source)revealed PBoC fixing (reported) · tradingpedia 2026-08-26 (search summary) | DEXCHUS | 6.78 | 6.73 | -0.06 | marked |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| Gold falls | Keep buying — the streak has run through every kind of month since it began | MD_XAUUSD 4,429 2026-09-06 | inferred21 consecutive monthly increases (WGC 2026-08, secondary) |
| Depreciation pressure on the yuan marked line 6.78 · now 6.73 | Nudge the fix in small steps; no step change | DEXCHUS 6.73 2026-08-28 | revealedthe August fixes (secondary) |
| US real yields spike | No change to the gold programme — the bid is not rate-driven (the house's gold_falsifier tests exactly this) | DFII10 2.42 2026-09-03 MD_XAUUSD 4,429 2026-09-06 | inferredtracker gold_falsifier_2026 |
If US real yields hold the 95th percentile and gold gives back 20% (the gold_falsifier FALSIFIED branch), the tell for whether the PBoC bid is price-sensitive is the reported monthly tonnage: a buyer diversifying for seizure risk keeps buying into the fall; a buyer chasing price stops. Disconfirmer of the 'steady reserve manager' read: a reported pause in the streak on a gold DOWN month.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-07-31 | July gold purchase reported as the largest monthly since 2023; 21st consecutive monthKitco 2026-08-07; WGC 2026-08 (search summaries) |
| 2026-08-26 | USD/CNY fix 6.7829, nudged strongertradingpedia (search summary — secondary) |
| USD/CNYthe fix | DEXCHUS | 6.73 | 41 n=10007, 40.1y | 2026-08-28 | |
| Gold in dollars — and the house's gold-in-yuan ratio (derived.ratios.gold_cny)Howell: watch yuan-gold, not dollar-gold | MD_XAUUSD | 4,429 | 97 n=4961, 18.8y | 2026-09-06 | |
| Official reserves — gold tonnes and Treasury holdings | not collected — SAFE monthly reserves and TIC not collected; both are free primary sources and a build candidate | ||||
| US real yields — the opportunity cost of the gold bidgold_falsifier_2026 | DFII10 | 2.42 | 96 n=5923, 23.7y | 2026-09-03 | |
The big banks that must bid at every Treasury auction and hold what they buy. They break when they are already full and get forced to take more — which is exactly what happened on August 18th, the day before Treasury doubled its buybacks.
On 2026-08-18 they were `capacity_exhausted` at the 20Y with G11L21 inventory at the 95th percentile; Treasury raised the buyback cap the next morning. Everything Bessent does is, mechanically, done to this balance sheet.
They sell what they can into the 09-10 buyback (the offered volumes already show this) and take the auctions; the read stays normal unless the 30Y retests 5.34 the same day.
Swap spreads stable through a weak auction — then dealers were never the constraint.
| Funding stress — repo rate minus the Fed's floor (SOFR − IORB) | 0.01pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Settlement fails — the plumbing breaking | 76.66$bn | -6.84$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Long bonds sitting in their warehouse (11–21y) | 65$bn | -12.39$bn / 60d | → their way |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| G11L21 inventory at the 95th percentile — the state on 2026-08-18 when the read went capacity_exhaustedrevealed served auction_internals · QRA_BASELINE §1d | PD_COUPON_G11L21_NET_MN | — | — | — | — |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| Full warehouse AND a forced takedown at auction | Sell off-the-runs into Treasury's buyback; widen quotes; fund more in repo | PD_COUPON_G11L21_NET_MN 64,997 2026-08-26 BUYBACK_LS_10Y20Y_OFFERED_BN 7.4 2026-08-11 PD_REPO_UST_MN 3,010,949 2026-08-26 | revealedauction_internals capacity rule; 08-18 served read |
| Repo tails out (SOFR p99 well above the median) | Draw the SRF — the Fed's ceiling | SOFR_P99 3.74 2026-09-03 SOFR 3.66 2026-09-03 RPONTSYD 0 2026-09-04 | revealedplumbing rung 1 |
| Fails spike | The plumbing is breaking — March 2020 shape; the policy response is Treasury's, then the Fed's | PD_FAILS_TO_DELIVER_UST_MN 76,655 2026-08-26 | revealedrung 3 |
| Regulators open the door | The permanent SLR exemption ask | an announcement, not a series | statedSIFMA letters (search summary) |
If inventory is at the 95th percentile AND an auction tails with a high dealer takedown, the bloc does not choose — it sells what it can (off-the-runs, into Treasury's buyback, which is exactly what the offered volumes show) and widens what it quotes. The footprint is fails up, SOFR p99 up, swap spreads more negative. Disconfirmer: swap spreads stable through the episode — Wang's test that dealers are NOT the constraint.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-04-01 | eSLR modification effective (adopted 2025-11-25) — tracker 'SLR reduction' VERIFIEDconfig/tracker.yaml |
| 2026-08-18 | 20Y read capacity_exhausted: dealer_pct_z +1.49, G11L21 inventory 95th pct; a $2bn buyback op the same day did not arrest the 30YQRA_BASELINE §1d |
| 2026-08-19 | Treasury doubled the long-end buyback cap ~4h before the 20Y auctionsb0607 |
| SOFR − IORB and the SOFR tailplumbing rung 1 | SOFR | 3.66 | 62 n=2104, 8.4y · short window | 2026-09-03 | |
| IORB | 3.65 | 39 n=1867, 5.1y · short window | 2026-09-07 | ||
| SOFR_P99 | 3.74 | 61 n=2103, 8.4y · short window | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Failsrung 3 | PD_FAILS_TO_DELIVER_UST_MN | 76.66 $bn | 37 n=700, 13.4y | 2026-08-26 | |
| Long-bucket inventoryauction capacity rule | PD_COUPON_G11L21_NET_MN | 65 $bn | 96 n=243, 4.6y · short window | 2026-08-26 | |
| Realised bond vol — the VaR input | not collected — derived.bond_vol (a gauge on ZN_F), not a series; MOVE itself is owner-pasted | ||||
Money-market funds and stablecoin issuers — the buyers Treasury's bill-heavy borrowing is designed for. Their cushion at the Fed (the RRP) is empty, so every new bill is now paid for out of bank reserves. They break when bills get scarce or a stablecoin gets redeemed.
The RRP buffer is gone (served ~$2bn on 08-04 against a ~$2.5tn peak), so every bill Treasury sells to rebuild the TGA is now paid for out of bank reserves — this bloc is the delivery vehicle for the drain the §2 tracker entry is scoring.
The drain: RRP stays near zero, reserves fall with the TGA toward the stated late-October peak, and SOFR minus IORB widens into it.
RRP refilling while the TGA builds — bills scarce, no drain, the section-2 price leg does not fire.
| Bill yield above the Fed's floor (3-month bill − IORB) | 0.24pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Bills outstanding — what they are asked to absorb | 7,248$bn | +557.40$bn / 60d | → their way | |
| Cash parked at the Fed (RRP) — the cushion, shown not scored line 2.25$bn · -1.57 · marked | 0.68$bn | -0.97$bn / 30d | their tool — not scored |
| level | series | level | now | distance | state |
| RRP ~$2bn on 2026-08-04 — the buffer is gone; a REFILL from here is the scarcity tellrevealed served baseline (QRA_BASELINE) · QRA_BASELINE served baseline 2026-08-05 | RRPONTSYD | 2.25 | 0.68 | -1.57 | marked |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| Bills get scarce or cheap to the floor marked line 2.25 · now 0.68 | Park at the RRP — it refills from zero | RRPONTSYD 0.68 2026-09-04 DGS3MO 3.89 2026-09-03 IORB 3.65 2026-09-07 | revealed2023 in reverse |
| Bill supply rises with the buffer at zero | Absorb out of bank deposits — reserves fall | FISCAL_MKT_BILLS_BN 7,248 2026-08-31 WRESBAL 2,894,531 2026-09-02 WTREGEN 967,935 2026-09-02 | revealedQRA_BASELINE section 1c channel B |
| A stablecoin is redeemed at scale | Reserves sold — the bid becomes supply | DGS3MO 3.89 2026-09-03 | inferredthe GENIUS reserve rule |
If RRP refills while the TGA is still building, bills have become scarce relative to the floor and Treasury's October 'increases across the bill curve' will be absorbed without a reserve drain — the §2 entry's price leg would then NOT fire. That is the benign branch. The stress branch is the opposite: RRP stays at zero, reserves fall with the TGA, and SOFR−IORB widens. Disconfirmer of the whole frame: both legs quiet through the late-October peak.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-07-10 | Circle received an OCC national trust bank chartersearch summary — secondary |
| 2026-08-04 | RRP served at $2.251bn — buffer exhaustedQRA_BASELINE served baseline |
| RRPthe buffer | RRPONTSYD | 0.68 | 11 n=3320, 23.6y | 2026-09-04 | |
| 3-month bill vs IORB — is the bill cheap to the floor?inferred | DGS3MO | 3.89 | 56 n=10006, 40.0y | 2026-09-03 | |
| IORB | 3.65 | 39 n=1867, 5.1y · short window | 2026-09-07 | ||
| Bills outstandingthe supply they absorb | FISCAL_MKT_BILLS_BN | 7,248 | 100 n=308, 25.6y | 2026-08-31 | |
| Stablecoin float and reserve composition | not collected — not collected; DeFiLlama/issuer attestations are public — a build candidate | ||||
Companies buying back their own stock — the biggest single buyer of US equities. The bid runs on cheap debt and fat profits and switches off around earnings by rule, not by mood.
A bid that is mechanical, pre-authorised, and switched off by the calendar (blackout windows) rather than by the tape — which is why the blackout proxy is on the main page and why this bloc has no fear, only a cost of capital.
The bid returns after blackout at similar size — spreads are near their lows and profits are up 20% (Warsh). The blackout itself is the only predictable absence.
Repurchases rising into wider spreads — a cash-funded bid this card understates.
| Cost of borrowing — investment-grade spread | 0.81% | +0.06% / 60d | ← against | |
| Cost of borrowing — BBB spread | 1% | +0.06% / 60d | ← against | |
| Stocks — S&P 500 | 7,719 | +181.17 / 60d | → their way | |
| Corporate profits (quarterly) | 4,302$bn | +510.21$bn / 180d | → their way |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| IG spreads widen through their band | Shrink the next authorisation cycle — slow, quarterly | BAMLC0A0CM 0.81 2026-09-03 BAMLC0A4CBBB 1 2026-09-03 | inferredthe leverage arithmetic |
| The calendar says blackout | Off — mechanically, about 5 weeks before earnings to 48h after | an announcement, not a series | revealedconfig/blackout.yaml; flow_calendar |
| A higher excise is legislated | Shift to dividends | an announcement, not a series | inferredthe 1% IRA excise precedent |
If IG OAS widens through its band while the index is off its high, the bid does not argue — it shrinks with the next authorisation cycle, and the blackout proxy shows when it is absent regardless. Disconfirmer: repurchases rising into wider spreads (a sign the bid is being funded from cash, not debt — Warsh's +20% profits).
| date | what they did |
| 2025-12-18 | S&P DJI: twelve-month buybacks to Sept-2025 a record ~$1.02tnS&P Global press release (search summary) |
| IG and BBB spreads — the cost of the bidJH 2026-08-28 | BAMLC0A0CM | 0.81 | 35 n=827, 3.2y · short window | 2026-09-03 | |
| BAMLC0A4CBBB | 1 | 27 n=788, 3.0y · short window | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Corporate profitsJH 2026-08-28 | CP | 4,302 | 100 n=160, 39.8y | 2026-04-01 | |
| The index and its highinferred | SP500 | 7,719 | 100 n=2555, 10.2y | 2026-09-04 | |
| SPX_HIGH | 7,750 | 98 n=539, 2.1y · short window | 2026-09-04 | ||
| Blackout share of market cap | not collected — derived.flow_calendar — a gauge; the true 500-name figure is owner-seeded | ||||
Hedge funds running the Treasury basis trade, trend-followers, and volatility-targeting funds. None of them decide anything — repo cost, margin and volatility decide for them — which is why when something breaks, they are the first footprint.
The actor that does not decide — 'if repo rates spike or futures margin requirements increase abruptly, hedge funds may be forced to unwind positions rapidly' (OFR) — and therefore the actor whose footprint arrives first when any principal above gets its fear.
No unwind absent a repo-tail or margin shock; the OFR names those two triggers and neither is in the served data today. If one lands, the footprint arrives in days and precedes every policy response on this page.
A rate shock with fails flat and swap spreads stable — the leverage was not where the OFR says it is.
| Repo tail — 99th-percentile SOFR above the median | 0.08pp | +0.00pp / 30d | = flat | |
| Volatility — VIX | 14.32 | -2.18 / 30d | → their way | |
| Leveraged short in 10y futures (% of open interest) — shown, not scored | -39.09% | -1.56% / 60d | their tool — not scored |
| if | then | how we would see it | basis |
| Repo rates spike or margin requirements jump | Unwind the basis — sell cash Treasuries, buy back futures; long-end selloff, swap spreads collapse | SOFR_P99 3.74 2026-09-03 TFF_ZN_LEVNET_PCTOI -39.09 2026-09-01 COT_ZN -14.12 2026-09-01 | statedOFR 2026-08-19 (verbatim mechanism) |
| Realised volatility rises | Vol-control sheds equity exposure by rule | VIXCLS 14.32 2026-09-03 | revealedderived.vol_control_proxy |
| The trend breaks | CTAs reverse on the signal they entered on | COT_ZN -14.12 2026-09-01 COT_ZB -9.95 2026-09-01 | revealedderived.cot_crowding |
If SOFR p99 spikes or a margin hike lands, this bloc unwinds in the order of its own leverage: basis first (cash Treasuries sold, futures bought back — a long-end selloff with swap spreads collapsing), vol-control second (equities sold on the realised-vol print), CTAs last (on the trend break). The footprint arrives within days and precedes every policy response on this page. Disconfirmer: a rate shock with fails flat and swap spreads stable — then the leverage was not where the OFR says it is.
| date | what they did |
| 2026-06-22 | Fed note: the basis trade is the key driver of hedge-fund Treasury exposureFEDS Notes 2026-06-22 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-19 | OFR: hedge funds' cash Treasury holdings reach $2.0tn (YE-2025); short futures ~$1.4tnOFR blog (fetched, verbatim figures) |
| Repo tails — the trigger the OFR namesOFR 2026-08-19 | SOFR_P99 | 3.74 | 61 n=2103, 8.4y · short window | 2026-09-03 | |
| SOFR | 3.66 | 62 n=2104, 8.4y · short window | 2026-09-03 | ||
| Realised volvol-control rule | VIXCLS | 14.32 | 27 n=9266, 36.7y | 2026-09-03 | |
| Swap spreads and the basis | not collected — derived.swap_spread (DTCC); the cash-futures basis itself is not collected | ||||
| Margin requirements | not collected — CME margin changes are announcements, not a series — event-dossier territory | ||||
“If repo rates spike or futures margin requirements increase abruptly, hedge funds may be forced to unwind positions rapidly.”
OFR blog, 'Hedge Funds' Cash Treasury Holdings Reach $2 Trillion' (fetched)data/principals/ and the spine in config/principals.yaml. Chart markers ①②③ are the dated actions listed under each chart; dashed lines are levels they stated or revealed by acting. The analyst reads this in conversation.One card per actor who can move the tape by choice or by rule: the Fed chair, the Treasury secretary, the White House, the BoJ/MoF, the PBoC (policymakers — they have wants and fears), and four blocs that act by rule (dealers, the bill bid, buyback desks, leveraged funds — they have a constraint and a known way of breaking). Each card lists what they want, what they fear, the levers they hold, what THEY watch, the levels they have stated or revealed by acting, and a dated action log — joined at read time to the served print of each footprint series.
Every read on the main page ends in a question about a reaction function: will Treasury act, will the Fed hike into it, will Japan sell. Until 2026-09-03 every fact about those actors lived inside an ANALYST's profile as that analyst's claim. This page makes the actor the object, so 'what would Bessent do' can be answered from his own words and his own dated actions, and scored when he acts again.
config/principals.yaml is the spine: every want/fear/lever/level carries a `basis` — stated (their words, dated), revealed (inferred from a dated action), attributed (a named analyst's reading), inferred (ours) — and a source. derive/principals.py joins each footprint series to its latest print, freshness verdict and percentile-with-span, evaluates each numeric level against the current print (breached / clear / marked), and draws the dated actions as numbered markers on the charts. Nothing is scored here; tracker entries a principal owns are shown from the served tracker.
Start at the roll-up: each row scores a short list of numbers against what the actor WANTS (declared per item — Warsh wants inflation down, Bessent wants the 30-year down); the change over the stated window is toward or against, the verdict is the tally, and their own tools are shown but not scored. No deadband — the magnitude is printed, you judge the noise. Then, in the full card, read the basis chip before the sentence: a 'stated' fear is evidence, an 'inferred' one is a hypothesis. A level marked 'revealed' (the 30Y at 5.34 the morning Treasury acted) is the strongest kind — it was paid for. The 'if the fear hits' line is HOUSE ANALYSIS with its disconfirmer, never the principal's position. A chart marker ① is an action on the log below it; a level line is where they have said or shown they care.
A principal acting OUTSIDE its stated lever set (the Fed touching the long end; Treasury not acting through a breached level) is the read changing — record it in the action log first, then re-argue the profile. The disconfirmer on every 'if the fear hits' line names what that looks like in the data.
Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve — in office since 2026-05-21 (100th day was 2026-08-28, by his own count)
“We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“The thing about market measures of inflation expectations in economic history is that they tend to look strong and durable until they don't.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.”
Jackson Hole prepared text“Certain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
Jackson Hole prepared text| 2026-05-21 | Took office (derived: '100th day' on 08-28)JH 2026-08-28 |
| 2026-07-14 | Testified to committee, same morning as June CPIconfig/whatifs.yaml |
| 2026-07-29 | FOMC: hold 3.50–3.75, vote 9–3, Hammack/Kashkari/Logan for +25bpdocs/evidence/FOMC_2026-07-29_MINUTES.md |
| 2026-08-19 | Minutes released: 'many participants' see tightening likely if inflation does not decline; balance-sheet composition on the tabledocs/evidence/FOMC_2026-07-29_MINUTES.md |
| 2026-08-28 | Jackson Hole 'In Our Time': no reaction function, price stability predominant; Sept hike odds 34→56% on the daydata/panel/2026-08-28-WARSH-JACKSON-HOLE-PREPARED-TEXT.txt; JACKSON_HOLE_2026_G1_SCORING |
If expectations move (T5YIFR/T10YIE break higher with oil), expect a hike delivered WITHOUT guidance about the next one, and a refusal to touch the balance sheet for the long end — he has said the short rate is the tool. Disconfirmer: a hike paired with a stated path, or any long-end purchase language, would mean the 'quieter Fed' doctrine did not survive contact.
data/principals/warsh.md · config: config/principals.yaml#warshSecretary of the Treasury
“We're going to increase the size of the buyback. I would note that it could be more than the $4 billion per issue.”
CNBC via Reuters — QRA_BASELINE §1d; verify against the CNBC video before citing as verbatim“Part of it is signaling here, and to show that we believe that the yields don't reflect the underlying fundamentals.”
CNBC via Reuters — QRA_BASELINE §1d“All we're trying to do is get people to focus on the fundamentals and not trade the headlines during a quiet period in a thin market.”
CNBC 2026-08-20 (search summary; page 403 to this fetcher)“This increase in buyback operation sizes reflects Treasury's desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants.”
Treasury press release sb0607 (verbatim, fetched 2026-08-21)“The Trump Administration delivers for America's trusted partners.”
Treasury statement on the joint intervention (CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03, search summary)| 2026-07-31 | US leg of the joint yen intervention (NY Fed sold ~€13bn for yen per Wang); USD/JPY 163.44 → 157.46check 2026-08-12 usdjpy-intervention-retrace; Wang session 01 |
| 2026-08-03 | Confirmed the operation; 'will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention'CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03 (search summary — verify verbatim) |
| 2026-08-05 | Q3 QRA: $125bn refunding, coupons unchanged, 'increases' → 'changes', TGA path $950bn/$1.05tndocs/evidence/QRA_BASELINE.md |
| 2026-08-19 | sb0607: long-end buyback cap ≥ doubled to $4bn from 09-09 — announced ~4h before his own 20Y auctiondocs/evidence/QRA_BASELINE.md §1d |
| 2026-08-20 | CNBC: 'could be more than the $4 billion per issue'; 'part of it is signaling'; yields rose anywayQRA_BASELINE §1d reactions (via Reuters) |
| 2026-08-24 | Reported (sources): could tap the ~$1tn TGA to fund buybacksCNBC 2026-08-24 (search summary; page 403 to this fetcher) |
| 2026-08-30 | Met BoJ Governor Ueda; US 'conveyed strong support for decisive measures to correct the weak yen'Japan Times 09-02 (search summary; page paywalled) |
If the 30Y clears 5.34 again into a capacity-exhausted auction, expect the ladder in the order he has already climbed it: a bigger cap or an off-schedule operation first (he has said so), then an issuance-mix cut to long coupons at the 11-04 QRA, then the SLR exemption ask — each one a Treasury tool because the Fed's chair has ruled out the balance sheet. Disconfirmer: the 30Y through 5.50 for a sustained stretch with none of those — then there is no ceiling and the repression read is wrong (§2b).
data/principals/bessent.md · config: config/principals.yaml#bessentThe President — fiscal, trade, and appointment power; the principal every other principal answers to
“I have a lot of respect for him and he'll do what he has to do.”
PBS NewsHour video, remarks on Warsh and possible hikes“I think our interest rates are too high.”
PBS NewsHour video| 2026-07-31 | Authorised the US leg of the joint yen intervention — first US yen-buying since 1998Treasury/CNBC 08-03 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-19 | 'Bemoans Fed interest rate policy, says U.S. should be paying much less' — same day as the buyback doublingCNBC 2026-08-19 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-31 | 'I have a lot of respect for him and he'll do what he has to do' on a possible hike; 'our interest rates are too high'PBS NewsHour (verbatim) |
If the long end breaks into the midterm window, expect the response to route through Treasury (buybacks, mix, TGA) and energy (SPR, Hormuz posture) — not through the Fed, which he has publicly declined to pressure. Disconfirmer: a public demand for a cut after a hike — that would reopen the Fed-independence channel and change every other principal's calculus.
data/principals/white_house.md · config: config/principals.yaml#white_houseGovernor Kazuo Ueda (BoJ) · Finance Minister Katayama (MoF) — the MoF orders intervention, the BoJ executes it and sets the rate
“countered excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months”
Japan Ministry of Finance statement (CNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03, search summary — verify verbatim)“a losing war unless you adjust interest rate differentials”
Wang, Markets Weekly (attributed reading, not the BoJ's words)| 2026-07-30 | Japan solo intervention, reported ¥8.45tn (~$52.8bn); 163.44 → 159.54check 2026-08-12 (reported sizes web-sourced) |
| 2026-07-31 | Joint US–Japan yen-buying — first since 1998; → 157.46check 2026-08-12; CNBC 08-03 |
| 2026-08-03 | MoF and Treasury confirm; readiness for moreCNBC/Al Jazeera 08-03 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-30 | Ueda met Bessent; US support for 'decisive measures'Japan Times 09-02 (search summary) |
| 2026-09-01 | Ueda signals an additional hike is under consideration for the September MPMJapan Times / Bloomberg 09-02 (search summary) |
If USD/JPY retakes 163 before 09-18, expect the hike to be delivered (it is the only durable lever both Setser and Wang name) and a second joint operation to be threatened before it is executed — the 08-03 language was written to make the threat credible. Disconfirmer: a hold on 09-18 with the yen above 160 — that would say the MoF/BoJ are choosing the JGB market over the yen, and the intervention was theatre.
data/principals/boj_mof.md · config: config/principals.yaml#boj_mofThe marginal official buyer of gold and the manager of the yuan — the principal whose actions we see only in the price
| 2026-07-31 | July gold purchase reported as the largest monthly since 2023; 21st consecutive monthKitco 2026-08-07; WGC 2026-08 (search summaries) |
| 2026-08-26 | USD/CNY fix 6.7829, nudged strongertradingpedia (search summary — secondary) |
If US real yields hold the 95th percentile and gold gives back 20% (the gold_falsifier FALSIFIED branch), the tell for whether the PBoC bid is price-sensitive is the reported monthly tonnage: a buyer diversifying for seizure risk keeps buying into the fall; a buyer chasing price stops. Disconfirmer of the 'steady reserve manager' read: a reported pause in the streak on a gold DOWN month.
data/principals/pboc.md · config: config/principals.yaml#pbocThe 24-odd firms obliged to bid every auction and to make the market in what they bought — constrained by the leverage ratio, the G-SIB surcharge, and their own VaR
| 2026-04-01 | eSLR modification effective (adopted 2025-11-25) — tracker 'SLR reduction' VERIFIEDconfig/tracker.yaml |
| 2026-08-18 | 20Y read capacity_exhausted: dealer_pct_z +1.49, G11L21 inventory 95th pct; a $2bn buyback op the same day did not arrest the 30YQRA_BASELINE §1d |
| 2026-08-19 | Treasury doubled the long-end buyback cap ~4h before the 20Y auctionsb0607 |
If inventory is at the 95th percentile AND an auction tails with a high dealer takedown, the bloc does not choose — it sells what it can (off-the-runs, into Treasury's buyback, which is exactly what the offered volumes show) and widens what it quotes. The footprint is fails up, SOFR p99 up, swap spreads more negative. Disconfirmer: swap spreads stable through the episode — Wang's test that dealers are NOT the constraint.
data/principals/dealers.md · config: config/principals.yaml#dealersThe buyers Treasury's issuance mix is designed for: money-market funds holding bills and repo, and GENIUS-Act stablecoin issuers required to hold cash and short Treasuries 1:1
| 2026-07-10 | Circle received an OCC national trust bank chartersearch summary — secondary |
| 2026-08-04 | RRP served at $2.251bn — buffer exhaustedQRA_BASELINE served baseline |
If RRP refills while the TGA is still building, bills have become scarce relative to the floor and Treasury's October 'increases across the bill curve' will be absorbed without a reserve drain — the §2 entry's price leg would then NOT fire. That is the benign branch. The stress branch is the opposite: RRP stays at zero, reserves fall with the TGA, and SOFR−IORB widens. Disconfirmer of the whole frame: both legs quiet through the late-October peak.
data/principals/bill_bid.md · config: config/principals.yaml#bill_bidThe largest single bid in US equities — S&P 500 repurchases ran ~$1.0tn in the twelve months to Sept-2025; 2026 authorisations were reported on pace for $1.2tn
| 2025-12-18 | S&P DJI: twelve-month buybacks to Sept-2025 a record ~$1.02tnS&P Global press release (search summary) |
If IG OAS widens through its band while the index is off its high, the bid does not argue — it shrinks with the next authorisation cycle, and the blackout proxy shows when it is absent regardless. Disconfirmer: repurchases rising into wider spreads (a sign the bid is being funded from cash, not debt — Warsh's +20% profits).
data/principals/buyback_desks.md · config: config/principals.yaml#buyback_desksRule-driven balance sheets: ~$2.0tn of cash Treasuries held by hedge funds at year-end 2025 against ~$1.4tn of short futures (OFR, 2026-08-19); trend and vol-target programs that buy strength and sell vol
“If repo rates spike or futures margin requirements increase abruptly, hedge funds may be forced to unwind positions rapidly.”
OFR blog, 'Hedge Funds' Cash Treasury Holdings Reach $2 Trillion' (fetched)| 2026-06-22 | Fed note: the basis trade is the key driver of hedge-fund Treasury exposureFEDS Notes 2026-06-22 (search summary) |
| 2026-08-19 | OFR: hedge funds' cash Treasury holdings reach $2.0tn (YE-2025); short futures ~$1.4tnOFR blog (fetched, verbatim figures) |
If SOFR p99 spikes or a margin hike lands, this bloc unwinds in the order of its own leverage: basis first (cash Treasuries sold, futures bought back — a long-end selloff with swap spreads collapsing), vol-control second (equities sold on the realised-vol print), CTAs last (on the trend break). The footprint arrives within days and precedes every policy response on this page. Disconfirmer: a rate shock with fails flat and swap spreads stable — then the leverage was not where the OFR says it is.
data/principals/leveraged_funds.md · config: config/principals.yaml#leveraged_fundsWhether the PLATFORM is working — not a market gauge. Status degraded.
in-app indicator: it cannot report that the app itself is unreachable — if the process is down, nothing answers here at all